Netflix stock rallied on reports that the streaming giant will not pursue an acquisition of NBCUniversal, easing investor fears of another costly megadeal. Shares gained 3.8% on July 1 after The Wall Street Journal walked back earlier speculation that Netflix could be a potential buyer of the media company following Comcast’s announced spinoff.
The relief reflected deep skepticism about Netflix’s M&A appetite. In February 2026, Netflix had agreed to an $82.7 billion deal for the studios and streaming assets of Warner Bros. Discovery, only to be outbid by Paramount Skydance’s $110 billion offer for the whole business. With the stock already down roughly 43% over the past year and trading near its 52-week low, the prospect of another expensive acquisition attempt was poorly received by investors.
Analysts were quick to dismiss the deal thesis. MoffettNathanson’s Craig Moffett wrote that the firm did not see a Netflix-for-NBCUniversal deal, noting that having the two companies under the same roof had not made either better historically. Comcast CEO Brian Roberts was equally dismissive, saying the separation was “absolutely not” a prelude to a sale and describing it as the right move to put each business “in the strongest position to create value, fully monetize its assets, and aggressively pursue its own organic growth strategies.”
Still, a structural barrier may matter more than sentiment. To preserve the tax-free structure of the spinoff, NBCUniversal must operate independently for at least one year post-spinoff before it can pursue a sale or merger. That one-year lockup means any deal is structurally impossible in the near term regardless of appetite, according to sources familiar with the transaction.
Focus Shifts to Ad Revenue and Earnings
With deal speculation fading, investor attention is turning to Netflix’s core business momentum. The company’s advertising revenue is expected to double to $3 billion in 2026, a key driver of growth as the ad-supported tier gains traction. Netflix also targets 12%-14% overall revenue growth for the full year, with management repeatedly affirming confidence in achieving a 31.5% operating margin.
The next major test for the stock comes on July 16, when Netflix reports second-quarter 2026 earnings after the close. Consensus expectations point to earnings per share of $0.79 on revenue of $12.58 billion. Investors will be watching closely for any management commentary on the company’s M&A strategy and whether the stated preference for organic growth holds in the face of a newly available, structurally attractive content asset in NBCUniversal.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance / Investing.com — Netflix stock gains of 3.8% on July 1 after WSJ report refutes NBCUniversal acquisition speculation; relief from fears of another costly megadeal following Warner Bros. Discovery loss
- FXLeaders — Netflix stock jumps 4.7% on July 3 as NBCUniversal deal fears fade
- Seeking Alpha — Netflix targets 12%-14% 2026 revenue growth and $3 billion in ads with 31.5% operating margin guidance (April 16, 2026)
- The Motley Fool — Netflix’s advertising revenue expected to double to $3 billion in 2026 (July 5, 2026)
- CNBC — Netflix reported $1.5 billion in ad revenue in 2025 and expects that to double in 2026 (January 21, 2026)
