U.S. intelligence agencies have warned the Trump administration that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to take steps that will undermine Trump’s effort to reach a lasting peace deal with Iran, as the Israeli leader faces intense domestic pressure to continue military operations in Lebanon, according to current and former U.S. officials.
The warning comes two days after Trump signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran on June 17 at the G7 summit in Versailles. The agreement calls for an “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” according to the text released by the Trump administration.
Yet Netanyahu has made clear he will not comply. On June 15, the Israeli prime minister announced that Israel will maintain its military presence in southern Lebanon indefinitely, saying “we will stay in the Lebanon security buffer zone for as long as necessary.” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reiterated on June 17 that Israel’s forces will remain in what it calls security zones “for an unlimited period of time.”
The conflict escalated on June 19 when Israel launched airstrikes across southern Lebanon in response to a Hezbollah drone strike that killed four Israeli soldiers. As fighting resumed, U.S. and Iranian officials postponed talks scheduled to begin in Switzerland, with Vice President JD Vance canceling his planned trip to lead the U.S. delegation.
U.S. intelligence officials concluded that Netanyahu’s political survival is tied to showing his domestic audience that he will not withdraw troops from Lebanon and that he intends to escalate the fight with Hezbollah ahead of Israeli elections this fall, according to one U.S. official familiar with the intelligence report. Seventy percent of Jewish Israelis support intensifying the fight against Hezbollah, according to a May 2026 poll by the Institute of National Security Studies.
Trump has publicly urged Netanyahu to exercise restraint. At the G7 summit, Trump said he has a “little dispute over Lebanon” with Netanyahu and told the Israeli leader not to “knock down a building every time somebody walks into it that’s from Hezbollah.” The Trump administration has also warned that continued Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory will likely doom the fragile accord between the U.S. and Iran.
In response, Vice President Vance issued a blunt warning to Israeli critics of the deal. “Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time, and he happens to be the head of state of the world’s superpower,” Vance told reporters at the White House on June 18. “If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.”
Vance also stated that Israel “can’t kill its way out” of its security problems, defending the Iran deal framework as a path to lasting regional stability. The agreement includes a 60-day ceasefire period during which the U.S. and Iran will negotiate a final nuclear deal.
The dispute over Lebanon has become the central threat to Trump’s Iran deal. The agreement, signed after months of negotiations, includes provisions for Iran to dilute its enriched uranium stockpile and commits the U.S. to developing a $300 billion reconstruction plan for Iran. However, the text makes no mention of Israel, Hezbollah, or how the ceasefire in Lebanon will be enforced—a gap that has left the agreement’s viability in question.
Netanyahu has shown defiance before. On two consecutive weekends in June, the Israeli prime minister launched airstrikes against Beirut in response to Hezbollah provocations that threatened to jeopardize Trump’s deal. The June 7 strike triggered Iran to launch ballistic missiles in retaliation, and tensions were defused only when the White House intervened.
If Netanyahu redoubles his military campaign in Lebanon, he would not only threaten the framework of the U.S.-Iran agreement but could rupture his relationship with an American president that has been integral to his political survival. Trump undertook the war with Iran on February 28 at Netanyahu’s urging and has since found himself mired in a conflict that has cost tens of billions of dollars and sent global gas prices soaring.
Sources
- The Washington Post — U.S. intelligence warning that Netanyahu is likely to undermine the Iran deal, Netanyahu’s political calculations, domestic Israeli support for escalation, and details of tensions between Trump and Netanyahu
- Al Jazeera — Full text of the 14-point memorandum of understanding, including provisions on Lebanon, uranium, and the Strait of Hormuz
- CNN — Confirmation of Trump signing the agreement on June 17 and Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire renewal on June 19
- Reuters — Vice President Vance’s warning to Israeli critics of the Iran deal
- NBC News — Israel’s continued military operations in Lebanon despite the U.S.-Iran agreement
- New York Times — Netanyahu’s public statements refusing to withdraw from Lebanon
