The Senior Citizens League forecasts a 3.9% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, up sharply from earlier predictions of 2.8%, according to updated analysis released this week. That increase would raise the average retired worker’s monthly benefit from $2,081.16 to $2,162.33 — a gain of $81.17 per month starting in January 2027.
The TSCL based its revised forecast on April data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, which tracks inflation in goods and services. The jump to 3.9% represents a 1.1 percentage point increase from the organization’s earlier 2.8% estimate, driven by persistent inflation in energy prices and housing costs.
The official 2027 COLA will not be announced until mid-October 2026. Independent policy analyst Mary Johnson has projected an even higher 4.2% increase based on the same inflation data, though the TSCL’s 3.9% figure remains the most widely cited forecast. Benefit checks reflecting the COLA adjustment will arrive starting in January 2027, with payment dates varying by birth month.
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Sources
- CNBC — confirmed the 3.9% COLA forecast and the $81.17 monthly increase for average retired workers
- The Senior Citizens League — issued the 3.9% forecast based on April CPI data
- Kiplinger — reported the forecast surge from 2.8% to 3.9% as a 1.1 percentage point increase
