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A new UC Berkeley analysis shows that Californians who relocate out of state typically cut housing expenses sharply and increase their chances of owning a home — a shift that helps explain ongoing migration trends as affordability squeezes remain in place. The study, which tracks the same households anonymously from 2016 through 2025, highlights concrete cost differences and the longer-term impact on homeownership.
What the data shows
Researchers measured monthly housing outlays to include mortgage or rent payments, utilities, property taxes and insurance, then compared neighborhoods before and after moves. On average, households leaving California landed in areas where monthly housing costs were substantially lower.
- Average monthly savings: About $672 less per month after leaving California ($2,376 to $1,705).
- Renter savings: Rents dropped roughly $631 monthly — nearly a 30% reduction for renters who moved out of state.
- Home price gap: Median home prices in destination neighborhoods were about $396,000 lower — roughly a 48% decline compared with their former California neighborhoods.
- Homeownership rates: Homeownership rose to about 60% in destination neighborhoods versus 53% where these households had lived in California.
- Longer-term gains: Seven years after moving, former California residents were about 11 percentage points more likely to be homeowners — a roughly 48% increase in the likelihood of owning — while people who moved into California saw a smaller increase (about 6 percentage points, or ~27%).
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Where people are going
Net migration flows in the study are presented per 10,000 residents on an annual basis. The largest net inflows from California were concentrated in nearby states with lower housing costs.
| State | Net inflow from California (per 10,000 annually) |
|---|---|
| Nevada | +81 |
| Idaho | +64 |
| Oregon | +37 |
| Arizona | +36 |
| Texas | +11 |
| Tennessee | +13 |
| Florida | +4 |
By contrast, moves within California generally did not produce financial relief: the average monthly housing bill for internal movers increased slightly, from $2,263 to $2,277. People who moved into California from other states saw their housing costs jump markedly, from about $1,754 in their previous out-of-state neighborhoods to $2,418 after arriving in California.
Why it matters now
The results underscore a clear trade-off for many households: leaving California often means lower monthly housing costs and a faster route to homeownership. That pattern may affect labor markets, regional demand for services, and local tax bases as more residents seek affordability elsewhere.
“The rising cost of living in California is pushing families to more affordable communities where owning a home becomes attainable,” said Evan White, executive director of the California Policy Lab. He noted that the financial differences between origin and destination neighborhoods are substantial and appear to translate into higher ownership rates within a few years.
For policymakers, planners and prospective movers, the analysis offers timely evidence about the practical consequences of housing price gaps. It also highlights how local housing markets and broader economic conditions interact to shape migration decisions and household wealth accumulation.
