Mortgage rates are holding near 6.4% as the summer homebuying season begins, according to Fannie Mae’s latest housing forecast, keeping borrowing costs elevated even as home prices show signs of relief.
The 30-year fixed rate is expected to remain stable throughout the rest of 2026, with the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasting rates will stay in the mid-6% range, including 6.5% in the third and fourth quarters. This stability reflects the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate cuts; the central bank has held the federal funds rate steady since January 2026 to assess the impact of previous cuts and monitor inflation tied to global energy prices.
Despite elevated mortgage rates, the housing market is showing mixed signals. Median home listing prices fell 2.5% year-over-year in June to $430,000, marking the seventh consecutive monthly decline, according to Realtor.com. This cooling in prices comes as the market enters its peak summer buying season, when home sales typically accelerate.
Housing affordability has improved modestly despite rates staying elevated. The Housing Affordability Index reached 110.6 in May 2026, according to Ameris Bank, signaling that median-income households can now afford a greater share of homes on the market. First-time buyers have also returned to the market, accounting for a growing portion of sales, according to Churchill Mortgage’s June report.
Experts caution that rates are unlikely to fall meaningfully in the near term. A June Reuters poll of property specialists found that the current mid-6% mortgage rate is “not expected to fall meaningfully any time soon,” though rates may ease slightly toward year-end, potentially reaching 6.3% in the fourth quarter. The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates track more closely than the federal funds rate, continues to be influenced by investor sentiment about economic growth and inflation.
Sources
- Credit and Collection News — Mortgage rates holding near 6.4% as summer homebuying season begins, Fannie Mae forecast, Realtor.com median listing price data, Ameris Bank Housing Affordability Index, Churchill Mortgage June report, Reuters poll on rate expectations
- Forbes — Mortgage Bankers Association forecast of 6.5% for Q3 and Q4 2026
- Bankrate — Federal Reserve rate hold since January 2026
