U.S. stock market futures slipped early Monday as Wall Street assessed the latest developments in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations and awaited key inflation data closely watched by the Federal Reserve.
S&P 500 futures traded down 0.5%, while Nasdaq-100 futures were 0.6% lower. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 187 points, or 0.4%, according to CNBC.
The stock market decline came after mediators Qatar and Pakistan announced that U.S. and Iranian officials had agreed on a roadmap to reach a final peace deal within 60 days, according to CNBC. The two sides concluded their first round of formal talks over the weekend in Switzerland and plan to continue technical-level discussions throughout the week.
Oil markets reacted more positively to the peace progress. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, fell 0.38% to $80.26 a barrel on the roadmap announcement, according to CNBC. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for July pared an earlier 3% jump to be about 1% higher, at $77.52 per barrel.
The muted stock market reaction contrasts with earlier rallies when broader peace frameworks were announced. When the U.S. and Iran initially signed a ceasefire extension in mid-June, stock futures had climbed and oil prices had tumbled more sharply. This time, investor caution appears to reflect uncertainty about whether the talks will hold, given recent tensions and conflicting signals from the Trump administration.
Fundstrat Global Advisors’ head of research told CNBC on Thursday that while multiple catalysts could impact markets, “conditions are still favorable for stocks,” though the firm warned that “later this year there is going to be an abrupt change of market conditions” that could feel like a bear market. The analyst cited supply chain impacts from the Strait of Hormuz closure and Federal Reserve policy changes as key risks.
The broader market context remained supportive despite the futures decline. The S&P 500 had gained nearly 1% in the prior week, posting its 11th winning week in 12, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced more than 2%. Investors remained focused on Thursday’s release of May’s personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, which could influence expectations for interest rate moves.
Sources
- CNBC — stock futures movements, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures declines, Brent crude and WTI prices, Fundstrat analyst commentary, market context
- Reuters — U.S.-Iran talks progress, 60-day roadmap announcement, mediators’ statements
- Al Jazeera — Iran negotiators’ statements on progress, talks in Switzerland
- The Guardian — Iran’s characterization of talks progress
