Votes are being counted in the Makerfield by-election, a high-stakes contest in the Greater Manchester constituency that could reshape UK politics and potentially trigger a challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership. The turnout was 58.75%, with 45,510 votes cast, higher than the 52.5% recorded in the 2024 general election, according to the BBC.
The by-election was triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons’ resignation in May 2026. Labour candidate Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is attempting to return to Parliament, while his nearest challenger is Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon. Fourteen candidates are running in total.
Senior Labour MP Louise Haigh told the BBC she is “quietly confident” that Labour has won the by-election, though she cautioned that it is too early to pre-empt the result. Labour sources believe the elevated turnout works in their favour, as they have a sense of how many votes they expect to receive. Political editor Chris Mason of the BBC described it as “the most important by-election in my lifetime.”
The stakes extend beyond a single parliamentary seat. If Burnham wins, he has promised to “enter any Labour leadership contest” to challenge Starmer, according to reporting from Courthouse News. Burnham has positioned himself as an alternative leader, with his victory potentially opening a path for him to succeed Starmer as prime minister. Starmer has signalled he would offer Burnham a cabinet position if he wins, and urged the party to avoid immediate leadership turmoil, according to The Guardian.
The contest has also highlighted a split on the right of British politics. Restore Britain, led by Rupert Lowe, is competing for votes alongside Reform UK. Lowe told the BBC he is “encouraged” by his party’s support, saying the high turnout should be good for them. However, reports from Labour sources suggest Restore Britain has not captured as large a share of the vote as some anticipated.
Burnham’s candidacy required him to stand while serving as Manchester mayor. If he wins, he is immediately disqualified from the mayoral role, triggering a subsequent by-election for that seat, according to the House of Commons Library.
Sources
- BBC — live election coverage with turnout figures, Labour confidence, and candidate statements
- The Guardian — Starmer’s cabinet offer and leadership warning to Burnham
- Courthouse News — Burnham’s promise to enter a Labour leadership contest if he wins
- House of Commons Library — rules on dual roles for MPs and mayors
- Wikipedia — background on the 2026 Makerfield by-election and Josh Simons’ resignation
