Tesla stock climbed more than 1% on June 12, 2026, following SpaceX’s historic initial public offering, as merger speculation between the two Elon Musk-led companies intensified after the rocket company’s record-breaking debut.
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share and raised $75 billion in the largest initial public offering ever, with shares opening at $150 and surging nearly 20% on their first day of trading under the ticker SPCX. Tesla stock closed that day at $406.43, up $7.28 or 1.82%, reversing earlier weakness as investors rotated back into the electric vehicle maker.
The momentum behind Tesla stock reflects growing conviction among Wall Street analysts that the two companies will eventually combine. On the day of SpaceX’s debut, SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell hinted at the possibility, telling CNBC that a merger “might make Elon’s life a little easier, actually.” She noted that “there’s synergies between Tesla and SpaceX in our futures, definitely,” pointing to the companies’ joint work on the $55 billion “Terafab” semiconductor facility and SpaceX’s previous purchases of Tesla Megapack power systems worth $506 million and Cybertrucks worth $103 million.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has become the most vocal proponent of a merger thesis, estimating an 80% to 90% probability that Tesla and SpaceX will combine in 2027, after SpaceX completes its IPO. According to Ives, a combined company would be a “holy grail” move allowing Musk to control more of the artificial intelligence ecosystem. The merger would create a company worth more than $3 trillion, leapfrogging Amazon and Microsoft to become the fourth-largest company in the world.
Wolfe Research’s Emmanuel Rosner identified three key factors driving the merger thesis: a public SpaceX gives Musk liquid stock currency for an all-stock deal; such a deal would push Musk’s voting control well above 50%; and a combined company would pair Tesla’s driving data with SpaceX’s compute buildout and a larger capital base. Rosner noted that the merger “has increasingly moved into the mainstream, with some now making it their primary thesis for owning TSLA stock,” based on discussions with institutional investors.
The two companies have already begun laying groundwork for a potential tie-up. In January, Tesla made a $2 billion investment in xAI, Musk’s artificial intelligence startup. When SpaceX acquired xAI in February in an all-stock deal valued at $250 billion, Tesla’s stake converted to nearly 19 million SpaceX shares. As of SpaceX’s IPO debut price, Tesla’s holding is worth approximately $3.29 billion, representing a roughly 64% paper gain.
A merger would face some practical hurdles, though regulatory obstacles appear limited since the companies operate in separate industries. Governance complexities—including which company would serve as the parent, share pricing, and stock swap details—would require resolution. Tesla’s China operations could add regulatory complications, and analysts believe completion is unlikely before mid-2027 at the earliest. Still, Shotwell’s public comments and analyst consensus suggest the market increasingly views a combination as inevitable rather than speculative.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance — Tesla stock gains and SpaceX IPO details, June 12, 2026
- Fortune — Gwynne Shotwell’s merger hints and combined company valuation analysis
- BeInCrypto / Yahoo Finance — Wolfe Research merger thesis and institutional investor positioning
- Seeking Alpha, MSN, Investor’s Business Daily — Dan Ives’ 80-90% merger probability assessment
