Robinhood stock surged on the launch of its World Cup prediction market and a major analyst upgrade, signaling Wall Street’s confidence in the trading platform’s expansion into regulated sports-event contracts. The stock jumped more than 5% to $87.16 on June 4 when Robinhood announced it had lowered trading costs and begun routing World Cup event contracts through Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse co-owned with Susquehanna International Group.
The momentum accelerated a week later when Needham & Company raised its price target on Robinhood to $97 from $85 on June 11, citing strong May metrics published by the company that showed significant acceleration in equities and event contracts. The firm maintained a Buy rating, reflecting confidence in Robinhood’s trajectory as a diversified financial super app.
Analysts view the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a watershed moment for prediction markets. Bernstein projects the tournament could drive more than $3 billion in bets on the event itself and lift overall consumer prediction market volume by $5 billion to $10 billion. The firm forecasts prediction markets reaching a $586 million annualized revenue rate for Robinhood by year-end, representing roughly 17% of its transaction-based revenues.
Robinhood’s May metrics showed the company added approximately 110,000 funded customers in the month, bringing the total to 27.7 million, and reported total platform assets of $377 billion, up 9% from April. Net deposits for May reached $5.6 billion. These figures drove Needham’s decision to raise equities and options estimates for the second quarter of 2026 and increase revenue projections for fiscal years 2026 and 2027.
The World Cup launch addresses a strategic gap for Robinhood. The tournament’s 104-match schedule lands in June and July, historically the softest stretch for online sports betting volume. By offering regulated prediction contracts tied to match outcomes, player props, and tournament winners, Robinhood can capture demand during a period when traditional sportsbooks see lower activity. Robinhood’s platform allows users to trade on individual matches, group winners, player performance, spreads, and totals.
Regulatory clarity has accelerated the prediction market industry’s growth. Since December 2024, sports prediction markets have been available in all 50 states under CFTC oversight, creating a level playing field for regulated platforms like Robinhood against unregulated offshore competitors. Kalshi, the prediction market platform Coinbase uses, surged 21% in May to $17.9 billion in volume with roughly 57% market share, outpacing the offshore Polymarket, which fell 14.8% to $7.1 billion.
Sources
- Robinhood Newsroom — World Cup prediction market launch on June 4, 2026, with routing through Rothera and fee reductions
- Investing.com — Needham analyst John Todaro raised price target to $97 from $85 on June 11, 2026, based on strong May metrics
- Yahoo Finance / Benzinga — Bernstein analysis calling World Cup a watershed moment for prediction markets, projecting $586 million annualized revenue for Robinhood and $5-10 billion in overall volume
- MarketBeat — Robinhood May metrics: 110,000 new funded customers, $377 billion platform assets, $5.6 billion net deposits
