Francesca Hong leads the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor with 38% support, according to a Marquette Law School poll released July 29, expanding her advantage over her remaining challengers just two weeks before the August 11 primary election.
Hong, a democratic socialist state representative from Madison, has built an overwhelming coalition among the party’s youngest and most liberal voters. In the Marquette survey of 407 Democratic primary voters conducted July 22–27, she led former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes by 22 percentage points, with Barnes at 16% support. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who re-entered the race with Gov. Tony Evers’ backing, received just 7% support, suggesting Evers’ endorsement did not shift voter preferences.
The poll found Hong with dominant support among voters under 45 and those identifying as “very liberal.” She led Barnes by 40 points among voters ages 30–44 and by 60 points among voters under 30. Among “very liberal” primary voters, Hong led 74% to 6%. Yet she remains competitive even among moderate and conservative Democratic voters, where Barnes leads 23% to 19%.
Hong’s strength mirrors a historical precedent in Wisconsin Democratic politics. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, another self-described democratic socialist, won the state’s 2016 presidential primary 57% to 43% over Hillary Clinton, carrying 71 of Wisconsin’s 72 counties. Like Sanders, Hong has captured the party’s left wing while building support across other demographic groups, and both candidates have benefited from the leftward shift of the Democratic Party itself. The share of Wisconsin Democrats identifying as “very liberal” has roughly doubled over the past decade, from 13% to 27%, according to Marquette polling.
A substantial 34% of Democratic primary voters remain undecided, the WPR report noted, with the largest share of undecideds among voters age 60 and older—a group where Hong’s appeal is weakest. However, analysts quoted in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel assessment concluded that Hong’s lead is large enough that one of her rivals would need to win an improbable share of undecided voters to overtake her.
The Democratic winner will face Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in the November general election. Early general-election polling shows a competitive race, with Hong trailing Tiffany in some surveys even as she dominates the Democratic primary. This dynamic has prompted national Democratic concern, according to reporting from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, over whether a democratic socialist nominee can prevail in a battleground state against a well-funded Republican challenger.
Hong’s nomination would represent a historic moment in Wisconsin politics. No state has elected a democratic socialist to the governorship in the modern era, making the outcome of the August 11 primary—and the subsequent general election—a significant test of the left wing’s electoral viability in a key swing state.
Sources
- Milwaukee Journal Sentinel — Marquette Law School poll results (38% for Hong, 16% for Barnes, 7% for Crowley) and demographic breakdowns; analysis of Hong’s polling strength and historical Sanders comparison
- Wisconsin Public Radio — Marquette poll details, undecided voter share (34%), and candidate support figures
- Ballotpedia — August 11 primary election date and candidate roster
