Democrats maintain a 5-point advantage in the latest national polling on the 2026 midterm election, with a new NBC News survey showing 49 percent of registered voters prefer Democratic control of Congress compared to 44 percent who favor Republican control, according to data released on June 14, 2026.
The poll, conducted from May 29 to June 7 and sponsored by More Perfect, a nonpartisan nonprofit dedicated to advancing democracy, surveyed 2,400 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The Democratic advantage has remained relatively stable since March, when Democrats held a 6-point lead in the same NBC News poll.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating continues to weigh on Republican prospects. Trump’s approval has dropped to 42 percent among registered voters, the lowest mark of his second term in NBC News surveys. Among all adults, his approval stands at 39 percent. The president struggles significantly with independent voters, with two-thirds disapproving of his job performance.
Independents lean toward Democrats by a substantial 12-point margin, 46 percent to 34 percent. Majorities of Black voters, Latino voters, voters under 50 years old, and those with a college degree also favor Democratic control of Congress. Republicans maintain an edge among men, white voters, and those without a college education.
While Democrats hold an advantage, Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, noted that “these are rocky numbers for Republicans, but they are not catastrophic.” Horwitt, the Democratic pollster, highlighted signs of weakness in the GOP base, noting that 95 percent of voters who backed Kamala Harris in 2024 prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 90 percent of Trump voters prefer Republican control.
The Democratic polling advantage comes as voters voice broader pessimism about the country’s direction. A majority of registered voters—56 percent—say they believe America’s best years are behind it, compared to 40 percent who believe the nation’s best years are still ahead. Democrats and independents are particularly pessimistic, with about 60 percent of each group saying the country’s best years are in the past.
Democrats face different challenges in the House and Senate races. For the House, Democrats need to net just three seats to take control, even accounting for redistricting that has narrowed the battlefield. However, Democrats face a tougher battle in the Senate, where they would need to net four seats—a difficult task since they must win multiple states that Trump won by double digits in 2024.
Comparing the current Democratic advantage to recent midterm cycles, Democrats held a 10-point lead in the June 2018 NBC News poll before winning 40 House seats that year. In May 2022, both parties were tied on the generic ballot before Republicans gained House seats.
Sources
- NBC News — National poll of 2,400 registered voters conducted May 29 to June 7, 2026, showing Democrats at 49 percent and Republicans at 44 percent on congressional control preference; Trump approval at 42 percent among registered voters
- The Hill — Reporting on Emerson College polling showing Democrats maintaining 10-point advantage over GOP congressional candidates
- USA Today — Coverage of midterm polling showing Democrats continuing to hold double-digit lead over GOP in congressional races
