Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted as the United States and Iran clash over control of the critical waterway, with only 10 vessels crossing on August 11 compared to roughly 130 daily transits before the conflict began in late February, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward. Iran has blocked most traffic in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes, while Washington maintains a naval blockade of Iranian ports, leaving the global energy system in crisis.
The disruption has sent oil prices surging. Brent crude rose more than 2 percent overnight into August 12, reaching close to $90 a barrel, with October futures at $89.53 as of that date—up 24 percent since the war’s outbreak in late February, according to Al Jazeera. The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil supplies, and the blockade has squeezed shipping to a fraction of pre-war levels. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait had recovered to about 9 million barrels per day, crediting “coordinated efforts” of the US military and Gulf allies, though market analysts expressed skepticism of that estimate, with one research firm pegging the moving average at about 7 million barrels per day.
Negotiations to reopen the waterway remain deadlocked. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said on August 11 that talks between Oman and Iran over the strait were at an “advanced stage,” with Doha pushing for reopening “as soon as possible.” However, Iranian officials have insisted the strait will remain closed until the US lifts sanctions, removes its blockade, and pays war reparations. Tehran has also said its talks with Oman are separate from the issue of reopening the strait itself. US President Donald Trump claimed on August 11 that Washington had “total control” over the waterway, despite maritime traffic remaining at a fraction of pre-war levels.
The standoff has escalated into a battle over sovereignty. On Friday, August 14, Trump vowed to declare the Strait of Hormuz a US territory after “we finish defeating Iran,” according to CNN. Iran immediately rejected the claim, with Tehran saying the waterway is “under Iran’s control and management,” according to Al Jazeera reporting on August 15. The US Energy Information Administration said it did not expect Middle Eastern oil production to return to near pre-conflict levels until early 2027, and forecast Brent to average $87 a barrel for the full year. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade in Sydney, told Al Jazeera that “markets have not completely lost hope for a deal, but confidence is clearly eroding,” as the longer talks drag on without visible progress.
The 2026 disruption has become the biggest global energy shock in recorded history. Before the war, shipping firms moved roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products through the strait each day. The closure has stranded around 6,000 seafarers aboard vessels unable to safely transit the waterway, and Iran lost $4.8 billion in oil revenue from April 13 to May 1 alone due to the US blockade. The disruption has rippled across supply chains for oil, liquefied natural gas, and fertilizers, requiring coordination across US national security, economic, and energy agencies. Regional states are accelerating plans for alternative routes; Gulf nations announced they are targeting 2027 completion of bypass pipelines to circumvent the Strait entirely.
Sources
- Al Jazeera — oil price movements, Brent crude levels, Windward tanker data, Iranian demands, Trump’s control claims, Iran’s counter-claims on August 15
- CNN — Trump’s August 14 statement on declaring the Strait a US territory
- Reuters — Iran’s blockade of traffic, US blockade of Iranian shipping, Qatar mediation efforts
- ABC News — Iran’s negotiations with Oman, Iranian insistence on conditions for reopening
- Council on Foreign Relations — tanker traffic decline of 70 percent, disruption to oil, LNG, and fertilizer supply chains
- World Oil — oil price movements and trader sentiment on deal prospects
