Democrat Josh Turek holds a narrow lead in Iowa’s competitive U.S. Senate race against Republican Ashley Hinson, with recent polling showing the contest tightening just months before the November general election. A Fox News poll released July 1 found Turek leading Hinson 50% to 46%, though the margin sits within the poll’s margin of error and reflects the razor-thin nature of a race expected to be among the nation’s closest.
The race has shifted dramatically from Iowa’s recent Republican lean. President Donald Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024, yet the new polling shows Iowans now view Trump negatively by 13 points (42% favorable vs. 55% unfavorable), a 19-point swing from his +6 rating in November 2024, according to Fox News. This broader political environment has reshaped the Senate matchup between Turek, a state representative and two-time Paralympic gold medalist, and Hinson, a three-term U.S. Representative who has received endorsements from Trump, Governor Kim Reynolds, and retiring Senator Joni Ernst.
The competing polling snapshots underscore the race’s fluidity. A New York Times Sienna poll released June 30 showed Hinson leading Turek by 2 points, while the Fox News survey gave Turek a 4-point edge. Both results fall within margins of error, and KCCI political analyst Dennis Goldford noted that the closeness itself signals a genuinely competitive contest in a state that has trended Republican for years. “These polling results are so close to each other,” Goldford said, “[which] suggests that at least at this point again in the early innings, if I were a candidate on either side, I would be hopeful because it suggests that the race is competitive.”
Inflation has emerged as the dominant issue shaping the race. Four in ten Iowa voters say inflation and high prices are the most important issue to their Senate vote, according to Fox News polling. Turek holds a 15-point advantage on inflation among extremely motivated voters, while Hinson leads on immigration by 88 points. Healthcare (14%), political divisions (13%), and immigration/border security (13%) lag inflation in voter priority.
Turek’s demographic coalition includes women with college degrees (65%), independents (59%), urban voters (59%), and voters under age 30 (55%). His net favorability rating is +18 points (51%-33%), compared to Hinson’s negative rating of -7 points (42% favorable, 49% unfavorable). However, Hinson’s backing from White evangelical Christians (67%), men ages 45 and over (55%), and voters without college degrees (52%) remains solid. Among MAGA Republicans, she holds a 23-point advantage over non-MAGA GOP voters.
The contest marks a potential turning point for Iowa Democrats. The state has not elected a Democratic senator since Tom Harkin in 2008. Iowa state Sen. Zach Wahls, Turek’s primary opponent, said before the June 2 primary that Turek would be the strongest general election candidate. “Josh Turek defeats Ashley Hinson,” Wahls predicted, and Turek won the primary with about 62% of the vote.
Turek has positioned himself as a “commonsense prairie populist” focused on issues affecting working families—affordable housing, healthcare access, and agricultural challenges. He has emphasized his bipartisan legislative record and pledged to reject corporate PAC money in the race. Hinson has countered by highlighting her record of delivering for Iowa, pointing to her work on farm policy, veterans’ mental health, and tax relief legislation she says is worth roughly $2,000 per Iowa family.
The race is drawing significant national investment. Both parties and their supporting groups are pouring resources into Iowa because control of Congress hangs on narrow margins in Washington. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and both campaigns are intensifying efforts to reach voters across Iowa’s 99 counties.
Sources
- Fox News — Fox News Poll showing Turek leading Hinson 50%-46%, Trump’s Iowa favorability shift, voter issue priorities, candidate favorability ratings, and demographic breakdowns (July 1, 2026)
- KCCI — Close Up episode featuring interviews with both candidates, polling analysis, and political context on the competitive race (July 12, 2026)
- NBC News — Turek’s Democratic primary victory and his background as a Paralympic gold medalist (June 2, 2026)
- AP News — Turek and Hinson as the nominees for their respective parties in Iowa’s Senate race (June 3, 2026)
- Roll Call — Turek’s background as a state representative and self-described “commonsense prairie populist” (June 3, 2026)
