The Cook Political Report shifted five gubernatorial races on Friday, moving four of them in favor of Democrats as the party gains momentum in several key states ahead of the November midterm elections. The nonpartisan political analysis group, led by Senate and Governors Editor Jessica Taylor, cited a favorable national climate and strong Democratic recruits as reasons for the shifts.
Arizona saw the most significant change, moving from a toss-up to lean Democrat. Governor Katie Hobbs, the Democratic incumbent, holds substantial fundraising advantages over likely Republican nominee Andy Biggs, having poured more than $6 million into advertising and maintaining more than six times his cash on hand as of April. Cook noted that while Hobbs is the most endangered Democratic incumbent among those running for reelection, her strong approval ratings and Biggs’ status as a potentially polarizing candidate backed by hard-line conservatives and election denial claims give her an edge in a state Trump won in both 2016 and 2024.
Ohio moved from lean Republican to toss-up, reflecting a genuinely competitive race between Democrat Amy Acton, the state’s former health director, and Republican biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Recent polling from The New York Times showed the candidates essentially tied at 47 percent each, despite Ramaswamy’s multimillion-dollar advertising campaign attacking Acton’s COVID-19 pandemic regulations. Some Ohio Republicans privately acknowledged to Cook that they are not optimistic about Ramaswamy, with one GOP source telling the report: “This was the wrong guy to roll the dice with in this political environment.”
Cook removed two Democratic-held seats from the competitive map entirely. Maine shifted from likely Democrat to solid Democrat, with Democratic nominee Hannah Pingree entering the race with a commanding polling advantage over Republican opponent Bobby Charles. New Mexico also moved from likely Democrat to solid Democrat, as former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland continues to dominate in fundraising over Rio Rancho Mayor Greg Hull.
Oregon was the lone race where Republicans gained ground. The state’s gubernatorial race moved from solid Democrat to likely Democrat, reflecting Governor Tina Kotek’s middling approval ratings and a competitive rematch against Republican Christine Drazan, who narrowly lost to Kotek by 3.4 percentage points in 2022.
If Democrats win these races as currently rated, it would mark the first time since 2010 that the party held more governor’s offices nationally, according to the Cook Political Report. Jessica Taylor wrote that Democrats are finding themselves uniquely competitive in several red-leaning states, a shift that reflects broader momentum heading into the midterms.
Sources
- The Hill — Detailed reporting on all five gubernatorial race shifts, candidate backgrounds, and Cook Political Report analysis
- Mediaite — Coverage of the five gubernatorial race rating changes and candidate matchups
