Morgan Stanley raised its bull-case price target for Rocket Lab to $293 from $185, implying 259% upside from current trading levels as the company diversifies beyond its core launch business into satellite connectivity and space systems.
Analyst Kristine Liwag reiterated an Overweight rating and maintained the firm’s $105 base-case price target on Wednesday. The bull case reflects confidence in Rocket Lab’s trajectory following its recent $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications, announced on June 29.
“SpaceX has demonstrated that the greatest value creation in the space economy comes not from launch alone, but from owning differentiated space-based infrastructure and monetizing recurring, high-margin services built on top of it,” Liwag said in a note to clients, according to MarketWatch. Rocket Lab is increasingly following that playbook, she argued.
The Iridium deal, valued at $54 per share in cash and Rocket Lab stock, gives the company access to valuable spectrum licenses and satellite-internet services serving millions of subscribers. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2027, pending shareholder and regulatory approval.
Rocket Lab’s space-systems division, which makes spacecraft and related components, accounted for 67% of the company’s revenue last year and more than half of its contracted backlog as of March 31. Morgan Stanley projects the division could grow at a 38% compound annual rate through 2028.
The bull case also hinges on the successful launch and operation of Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift rocket, which the company aims to debut later in 2026. In May, Rocket Lab announced a multi-launch agreement with a confidential customer for five Neutron launches and three Electron launches scheduled between 2026 and 2029. Neutron is designed to carry larger payloads than the company’s current Electron vehicle and has already secured advanced contracts valued at $50 to $55 million per mission.
Rocket Lab’s backlog exceeded $2.2 billion as of recent quarters, anchored by substantial defense and national security contracts with the Space Development Agency and U.S. military branches. That predictable, high-margin revenue stream shields the company from purely commercial launch fluctuations, reducing downside risk in the bull case scenario.
Sources
- MarketWatch — Morgan Stanley bull-case target, analyst commentary from Kristine Liwag, Iridium deal details, and Rocket Lab’s space-systems revenue and growth projections
- TipRanks — Morgan Stanley’s bull-case target raise from $185 to $293, Iridium deal impact on growth path
- Yahoo Finance — Iridium acquisition announcement, deal terms ($54 per share), and expected close timing
- Reuters — Rocket Lab’s $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications, cash and stock transaction structure
- Investing.com — Rocket Lab’s May 2026 multi-launch agreement with confidential customer, five Neutron and three Electron launches scheduled 2026–2029
