Democrat Josh Turek holds a 4-point lead over Republican Ashley Hinson in Iowa’s open U.S. Senate race, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday, positioning the Hawkeye State as one of the nation’s most competitive 2026 contests. The survey of 1,003 registered voters conducted June 23-27 found Turek at 50% and Hinson at 46%, a margin within the poll’s 3-point sampling error.
The race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has shifted notably since earlier June, when a Public Policy Polling survey for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee showed the contest tied. Turek, a state representative and two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, has expanded his advantage among the most engaged voters, holding a 15-point lead (56%-41%) among those who say they are extremely motivated to vote in November.
A significant factor in Turek’s gains appears to be declining support for President Trump in Iowa. The new Fox News poll finds Iowans view Trump negatively by 13 points, with 42% favorable and 55% unfavorable—a dramatic 19-point swing from his +6 rating (52%-46%) in the November 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis. Hinson, who secured Trump’s endorsement last September, faces voter concern about her proximity to the president, with 50% saying they are extremely or very concerned she is too close to Trump.
Inflation dominates Iowa voters’ concerns, with 39% naming it the most important issue in their Senate vote decision. Healthcare (14%), immigration and border security (13%), and political divisions (13%) trail significantly. Turek holds a 15-point advantage on inflation among voters prioritizing that issue, while Hinson leads by 88 points on immigration—her strongest issue.
Turek benefits from support among women with college degrees (65%), independents (59%), urban voters (59%), and those under age 30 (55%). Hinson’s backing comes from White evangelical Christians (67%), men ages 45 and over (55%), veterans (52%), and men without a college degree (52%). Among party voters, 96% of Democrats back Turek compared to 88% of Republicans supporting Hinson, a 8-point enthusiasm gap.
A Democratic victory would mark a historic shift: Iowa has not elected a Democratic senator since Tom Harkin won in 2008, and no Democratic presidential nominee has won the state since Barack Obama in 2008. Ernst, the first woman senator to represent Iowa, won her 2020 race by 6.5 points in a year Trump carried the state by 8 points. The Cook Political Report rates the race as leaning Republican, one step above toss-up status.
Sources
- Fox News — Fox News Poll conducted June 23-27, 2026, on Iowa Senate race; Trump favorability data; voter issue priorities; candidate favorability ratings
- The Hill — Reporting on the Fox News poll results, candidate backgrounds, and historical Senate election context
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) — June 8, 2026 poll showing race tied as of June 3-4 polling
