Mortgage refinance rates held near 6.56% on July 1, 2026, according to the Mortgage Research Center, as experts predicted rates would remain relatively stable heading into the long holiday weekend.
The 30-year fixed refinance APR stood at 6.56%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week’s 6.64%, according to Forbes Advisor’s daily tracking. For those with 15-year fixed refinances, the average APR was 5.70%, down 0.07 percentage points week-to-week.
Mortgage rates are shaped by macroeconomic factors including the 10-year Treasury yield, inflation trends, labor market conditions, and Federal Reserve policy. Earlier in the week, the 30-year conventional mortgage rate averaged 6.48% according to Bankrate’s survey of large lenders as of June 24. Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% as of June 25, 2026, up slightly from 6.47% the previous week.
A Bankrate poll of mortgage experts for the period of June 25 to July 1 found that 60% expected rates to remain unchanged, while 40% predicted rates would decline. None of the experts surveyed anticipated an increase. The consensus reflected a market pausing to digest recent economic data and geopolitical developments affecting bond yields.
The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts that 30-year mortgage rates will average 6.5% in the third and fourth quarters of 2026. Fannie Mae’s June 2026 Housing Forecast projects that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will hover at 6.4% for the remainder of the year. These forecasts suggest refinance rates are likely to remain in the mid-6% range through the second half of 2026, barring significant shifts in economic conditions or Federal Reserve policy.
Sources
- Forbes Advisor — 30-year fixed refinance APR at 6.56% as of July 1, 2026, down from 6.64% the prior week; 15-year fixed refinance APR at 5.70%
- Bankrate — Expert rate trend predictions for June 25-July 1, 2026; 30-year fixed rate at 6.48% as of June 24
- Freddie Mac — 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% as of June 25, 2026, up from 6.47% the prior week
- Mortgage Bankers Association — Forecast of 6.5% 30-year mortgage rates for Q3 and Q4 2026
- Fannie Mae — June 2026 Housing Forecast projecting 6.4% 30-year fixed rates through remainder of 2026
