Nike reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings tonight at 1:15 p.m. PT, with the company’s stock hovering near an 11-year low around $41 per share as investors await signs of progress on CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround strategy.
Analyst consensus calls for earnings per share of $0.12, down roughly 14% from $0.14 in the year-ago quarter, with revenue expected at $10.85 billion, representing a 2-3% decline from the prior year, according to AlphaStreet and Money Morning. The expectations reflect months of mounting pressure on the iconic sneaker maker.
The stock is down 36% year-to-date and 43% over the past 12 months, according to Yahoo Finance. Much of the decline stems from weakness in Greater China, where Nike expects fourth-quarter sales to fall approximately 20%, as the company faces fierce competition from local brands and operational challenges, according to the Wall Street Journal and Reuters.
The Turnaround Challenge
Hill, who took the helm in 2024 after spending years in retirement, has centered his “Win Now” strategy on refocusing Nike on performance sports and clearing excess inventory rather than lifestyle products, according to Fox Business and Vogue. The approach has involved reorganizing the company around sport-specific categories like Running and Basketball.
Yet as recently as June 22, Hill acknowledged that the turnaround is taking longer than expected, citing tariffs, weak demand, and global headwinds, according to Benzinga. The admission weighed on sentiment as the company heads into earnings.
Tariff pressures and margin compression have compounded Nike’s challenges. In December 2025, the company reported weak China sales and sustained tariff hits, prompting a 10% stock drop, according to CNBC. By April 2026, after a quarterly earnings beat, the stock still fell 15% on a weak full-year outlook forecasting low single-digit revenue decline with Greater China expected to drop 20%, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Investor patience is thinning. CNBC reported in June that Nike had limited time to prove itself, particularly after analyst downgrades. The company now faces a critical moment: whether tonight’s earnings and guidance can convince the market that Hill’s restructuring is gaining traction, or whether further declines lie ahead.
Sources
- Nike Investor Relations — Q4 FY2026 earnings release date and time (June 30, 2026, 1:15 p.m. PT)
- Money Morning — Stock near 11-year low at $41, analyst consensus EPS $0.12 down 14%, Q4 revenue guidance $10.85 billion
- Yahoo Finance — Stock down 36% YTD and 43% over past 12 months as of June 29
- AlphaStreet — Consensus among 23 analysts for $0.12 EPS and $10.85 billion revenue
- Reuters — China sales fell 10% in Q3; operational missteps and domestic competition cited
- Wall Street Journal — Q4 China sales expected to fall 20%; fierce local competition and weak outlook
- Fox Business — CEO Elliott Hill’s “Win Now” strategy focuses on sport-first approach
- Vogue — Hill’s turnaround plan includes restarting product innovation and rebuilding wholesale partnerships
- Benzinga — Hill acknowledged turnaround taking longer than expected (June 22, 2026)
- CNBC — Tariff pressure and China weakness reported in December 2025; Nike on borrowed time (June 2026)
