Micron Technology reports its fiscal third-quarter earnings tonight after market close, with Wall Street bracing for record-breaking results driven by surging demand for high-bandwidth memory chips used in artificial intelligence systems. Analysts forecast $35 billion in quarterly revenue, representing 279% growth year-over-year, while earnings per share are projected at $20.28, up nearly 998% from the same quarter a year ago, according to Money Morning and IG consensus estimates.
The company’s entire 2026 supply of high-bandwidth memory, the specialized chips that sit directly on Nvidia, AMD, and Google AI accelerators, is already sold out under fixed-price contracts. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has already signaled the company expects “significant records again” in the quarter, citing AI memory demand that is, in his words, outrunning supply by a wide margin.
The HBM Bottleneck Powering Micron’s Growth
High-bandwidth memory is critical infrastructure for the AI boom. Every time a hyperscaler orders Nvidia GPUs for its data center, it also needs the HBM that goes with them. Without HBM, AI chips cannot process data fast enough to run large language models at scale.
Micron expects to hold a 20-25% share of the AI memory market, which is growing faster than nearly any segment in semiconductors. The market is projected to grow from $35 billion in 2025 to $100 billion by 2028, according to Money Morning. That expansion alone suggests Micron’s HBM revenue could rise from roughly $7-9 billion today to $20-25 billion by 2028, before accounting for DRAM for PCs, NAND for storage, or other products the company sells.
Consensus gross margins are projected at 81.6% for Q3, which would be a company record, reflecting continued pricing power in a structurally undersupplied market, according to IG. Q2 already delivered a comprehensive sweep of company records: revenue of $23.9 billion represented 196% year-on-year growth, with gross margin reaching 74.9%, nearly double the year-ago level.
The Market’s Skepticism Despite the Numbers
Despite these staggering growth projections, Micron’s stock fell 11% on June 24 ahead of the earnings report, according to Money Morning. The decline was attributed to concerns triggered by sell-offs in South Korean memory companies Samsung and SK Hynix on June 23, which sparked fears about the global chip cycle.
However, Bank of America upgraded its price target on Micron to $1,500 on the same day the stock was selling off, citing “robust demand and limited supplies for AI memory through 2028,” according to Money Morning. The firm’s reasoning underscores that mainstream Wall Street continues to see the bear case as incorrect.
Investors will focus on forward guidance during tonight’s earnings call, particularly CEO Sanjay Mehrotra’s commentary on fiscal Q4 and whether HBM demand is holding at the levels currently priced into expectations. Attention will also turn to HBM4, Micron’s next-generation chip, which the company has said is ramping twice as fast as the prior HBM3E generation. That ramp could position Micron with the most advanced AI memory product on the market at scale entering 2027.
Micron increased its 2026 capital spending plan by $5 billion, a signal that the company expects demand to remain strong. Companies do not make such commitments when they expect demand to fall off.
Sources
- Money Morning — Micron Q3 2026 earnings preview, consensus revenue forecast of $35 billion (+279% YoY), projected EPS of $20.28 (+998%), HBM supply sold out, Bank of America price target of $1,500, HBM market projection to $100 billion by 2028, stock decline on June 24
- IG — Q3 2026 consensus revenue of $35.59 billion, gross margin projection of 81.6%, Q2 2026 revenue of $23.9 billion (+196% YoY), gross margin of 74.9%, HBM4 ramp details, analyst sentiment overview
- Reuters — Micron’s entire 2026 HBM supply sold out, demand outstripping capacity
