The Congressional Budget Office’s long-term projections show the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund would be exhausted in fiscal year 2032, according to CBO’s 2026 report and workbook.
The CBO’s September 17, 2026, publication, “CBO’s 2026 Long-Term Projections for Social Security,” states that “the balance of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is exhausted in fiscal year 2032.” The workbook accompanying the release includes 75-year revenue and outlay projections under current law.
Analysts and news coverage tied the change in timing to updates in CBO’s economic outlook. CBS News reports that the CBO revised its forecast after projecting hotter inflation, which can raise cost-of-living adjustments and draw down trust fund reserves faster.
The CBO workbook and supplemental files show the agency’s long-term projection that the gap between Social Security outlays and revenues widens over the coming decades, accelerating reserve depletion for the OASI trust fund.
Higher projected inflation is one mechanism the CBO cites: CBS reported that the agency forecasts a 3.1% COLA for 2027, which would increase benefit outlays and hasten reserve use. The CBO also notes lower projected trust fund income because of weaker individual income and payroll tax receipts in its economic outlook.
What this means for beneficiaries depends on congressional action. CBS quoted experts saying that if reserves are depleted, the Social Security Administration would continue paying benefits but could be forced to reduce payments to match incoming revenues.
Policy responses that analysts routinely discuss include raising payroll taxes, trimming benefit formulas, or changing the program’s indexing rules. The CBO workbook provides the data lawmakers use to evaluate how those or other options would alter long-term balances.
For readers tracking near-term Social Security changes, advocacy and agency estimates have recently focused on cost-of-living adjustments and administrative shifts; for example, advocacy groups and analysts have published 2027 COLA forecasts and the agency is moving toward electronic payments.
Internal coverage: see reporting on projected COLA figures and the Social Security Administration’s administrative updates for additional context.
Sources
- Congressional Budget Office — “CBO’s 2026 Long-Term Projections for Social Security,” workbook and statement noting OASI exhaustion in fiscal year 2032 (Sept. 17, 2026).
- CBS News — coverage reporting that CBO revised its projection after updating its economic forecast, noting a 3.1% COLA projection for 2027 and explaining how higher inflation speeds depletion.
