Costco stock is predicted to reach $2,250 per share by 2035, a gain of 136% that would push the warehouse retailer’s market cap to $1 trillion, according to analysis published by 24/7 Wall St. on August 2, 2026. The prediction rests on Costco’s exceptional fundamentals: 45.5% year-over-year earnings growth, a 89.7% worldwide membership renewal rate, and surging digital engagement that outpaces the core business.
Costco currently trades at $951.89 with a market cap of $422 billion, leaving significant room for expansion. The path to $2,250 requires annual earnings per share growth of roughly 10% to 11% through the end of the decade—a pace consistent with Costco’s recent trajectory. At that earnings base, a 40x forward price-to-earnings multiple would deliver the $2,250 target, according to the analysis.
Costco’s membership model underpins the bull case. Membership fees generated $1.373 billion in the most recent quarter, while the worldwide renewal rate of 89.7% remains near-perfect. Executive membership penetration recently hit 75%, a metric that continues to climb and compounds sharply when extended over a decade.
Digital growth is accelerating faster than the core warehouse business. In Costco’s third fiscal quarter of 2026, digitally enabled comparable sales rose 21.5% year over year, while website and app traffic jumped 37%. Personalization and AI-driven product recommendations contributed nearly $470 million in e-commerce sales during the quarter, according to Yahoo Finance reporting on the company’s earnings.
The trillion-dollar club remains exclusive. Apple, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco, and Amazon are the only companies to have reached $1 trillion in market capitalization, according to U.S. News & World Report’s analysis in June 2026. Costco’s entry would mark the first major retail player to join the group, a distinction that reflects both the durability of its membership model and the scale of its operational efficiency.
Wall Street’s consensus price target for Costco is $1,076.91, implying roughly 13% upside from current levels—a far more conservative view than the $2,250 call. The disconnect reflects valuation concerns; Costco trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 44x, elevated for a consumer defensive stock but justified by the company’s 45.5% earnings growth rate, according to the 24/7 Wall St. analysis.
The primary risk to the thesis is a material break in Costco’s renewal rate. Any significant decline in the 89.7% figure would undermine the long-term compounding assumptions that support the $1 trillion target. Catalysts supporting the bull case include expansion of Costco’s Kirkland Signature private label brand into new categories, on-site solar and battery systems at distribution centers to reduce operating costs, and market share shifting toward Costco and Amazon as traditional grocers like Kroger and Albertsons contract.
Sources
- 24/7 Wall St. — Prediction, earnings growth, membership renewal rate, executive penetration, membership fee revenue, path to $2,250, valuation multiple, renewal rate risk
- Yahoo Finance — Current stock price, market cap, earnings growth, membership renewal, e-commerce growth, digital comparable sales, personalization revenue
- Digital Commerce 360 — E-commerce sales growth and AI conversion rates in Q3 FY2026
- U.S. News & World Report — Trillion-dollar company list and historical precedent
