Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas holds a narrow 47% to 44% lead over former Republican Sen. John Sununu in New Hampshire’s race for U.S. Senate, according to a University of New Hampshire poll released in early July, marking a statistical tie in what was once a more comfortable advantage for the congressman.
The UNH survey, conducted June 18-23, shows Pappas’ lead has shrunk considerably since April, when he led Sununu 49% to 42%. The tightening reflects growing Republican momentum in a race to replace retiring three-term Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who announced in March 2025 that she would not seek re-election.
Pappas, a four-term congressman representing New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, officially entered the race on June 8, 2026. He leads the Democratic primary with 53% support among likely Democratic voters, ahead of scientist Karishma Manzur, who has gained ground with 29% backing. Pappas’ advantage over Manzur has narrowed from 43 points in April to 24 points in the latest poll, as younger and progressive voters show more support for Manzur.
Sununu, who served in the U.S. Senate from 2003 to 2008 before losing his re-election bid to Shaheen, dominates the Republican primary with 59% of likely GOP primary voters backing him, compared to 20% for former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown. Sununu has also been endorsed by President Donald Trump, and Republicans view him as a strong candidate to flip the seat and bolster their narrow 53-47 Senate majority.
The Cook Political Report currently rates the general election contest “Lean D,” reflecting Democrats’ slight advantage in the state, though the latest polling suggests the race remains highly competitive. The primary elections are scheduled for September 8, 2026.
Sources
- New Hampshire Public Radio — UNH poll showing Pappas leading with 47% versus Sununu’s 44%, conducted June 18-23 with 2,396 respondents and a 2% margin of error; Democratic and Republican primary numbers
- Seacoastonline — Pappas’ lead narrowing from 49%-42% in April to 47%-44% in latest poll; Republican endorsement of Sununu; Cook Political Report rating
- WCAX — Pappas filing his candidacy for U.S. Senate on June 8, 2026
- NBC News — Sununu’s Senate service from 2003-2008 and loss to Shaheen
- U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s office — Announcement in March 2025 that Shaheen would not seek re-election to a fourth term
