Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper predicted late Wednesday that Iran will seek maximum leverage in peace negotiations with the U.S. ahead of midterm elections, arguing that Tehran will attempt to “get what they can” before November when President Trump will have fewer political constraints.
Speaking on NewsNation’s “The Hill,” Esper said Trump’s political hand will become “freer after the election for sure, and the Iranians know that.” He continued: “So this is the Iranians’ time of maximum negotiation – get what they can now, because after November 4th, when [Trump] doesn’t have to worry about the politics and economics, he can really unleash the United States military once again after Iran.”
Esper’s prediction comes as the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire unravels. A 14-point memorandum of understanding signed in June 2026 included a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane, but left Iran’s nuclear program to be addressed in later talks. The agreement has now come under severe strain following escalating military strikes.
The U.S. struck approximately 90 targets inside Iran on Wednesday evening, according to The Hill. This followed U.S. strikes on Tuesday that lasted for hours, which the Trump administration said were retaliation for Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Iran responded by firing drones and missiles at Bahrain and Kuwait, which host U.S. military assets and troops.
Trump, visibly angered by the Iranian strikes, declared the agreement “over” during the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday. “I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum,” Trump said, adding it was a waste of time to engage with Iran’s negotiators.
Despite Trump’s dismissal, Esper argued the memorandum of understanding is not dead. He noted that both sides lack appetite for a return to all-out war. “President Trump, of course, certainly does not want to return to all-out war because he does not want to see oil prices rise, and that means gas prices go up as well. And that’s not good for the midterm elections,” Esper said.
Esper predicted the conflict will settle into a cycle of tit-for-tat strikes interspersed with diplomatic pauses. “It settles down, diplomacy takes back over, some ships pass through [the strait], it flares up again when they take shots at them, and we go through this cycle over and over and over again,” he said. Esper, who served as Defense Secretary during Trump’s first term, has been a frequent commentator on the Iran conflict, warning in earlier appearances that the U.S. was unprepared for a prolonged conflict with Iran and raising concerns about the preliminary nuclear agreement framework.
Sources
- The Hill — Esper’s prediction about Iran seeking maximum leverage before midterms, Trump’s statement declaring the agreement “over,” details of the June 2026 MOU, and Esper’s analysis of the ceasefire’s durability
- CNN — Details of the 14-point memorandum of understanding signed in June 2026 between U.S. and Iran
- NPR — Full text and framework details of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding
