MP Materials stock fell 13.4% in June after China added the rare earth company to its export control list on June 22, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, with much of the decline occurring after the announcement.
China’s Ministry of Commerce added MP Materials and USA Rare Earth to an export control list targeting companies it said are linked to U.S. military interests. The move prohibits all dual-use merchandise exports from China to the designated firms, creating significant secondary ramifications for MP Materials’ operations even though the company does not directly buy or sell to China.
The export ban’s impact extends beyond direct transactions. If a rare earth processing equipment company uses Chinese-made components and then sells the finished product to MP Materials, it may be banned from doing so by the Chinese government. Given China’s dominance in rare earth materials and magnet production and its pre-eminence in global manufacturing, the ban will likely impact MP Materials’ supply chain, according to Motley Fool analyst Lee Samaha.
The company’s exposure to political risk around China is multifaceted. MP Materials benefits from U.S. government support aimed at diversifying the country away from reliance on Chinese rare earth materials and magnets. In July 2025, the Department of Defense invested $400 million in equity in MP Materials and provided a $150 million loan to expand the company’s Mountain Pass facility in California, according to a CSIS analysis. The DOD also entered a 10-year pricing floor agreement at $110 per kilogram and committed to purchasing 100 percent of the magnets produced at MP Materials’ 10X Facility in Northlake, Texas.
This strengthening of MP Materials’ financial position and ability to service customers encouraged Apple to sign a $500 million long-term supply agreement, ensuring the technology company has access to domestically sourced and produced rare earth magnets.
China’s rare earth export controls reflect a broader pattern of strategic pressure. In April 2025, China imposed export restrictions on heavy rare earth elements and permanent magnets, triggering rapid disruptions across allied defense and industrial supply chains, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The April 2025 restrictions sent global supply chains into a tailspin and prompted the Trump administration to negotiate a 90-day truce to restart exports. As that truce came to a close in October 2025, China reimposed even stricter restrictions just days before a planned meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. At the end of October, Trump and Xi reached an agreement to suspend export restrictions for one year.
Despite the June decline, analysts maintain a largely positive outlook on MP Materials. According to consensus data, 14 analysts have given MP Materials a consensus rating of Buy, with a 2026 price prediction of $76.43, according to public.com, suggesting potential upside from current levels. The company’s long-term investment case rests on the critical need to diversify U.S. rare earth supply away from China and the government’s commitment to support domestic production capacity.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance — stock decline of 13.4% in June 2026; timing of decline relative to China export control announcement
- Reuters — China’s June 22, 2026 addition of MP Materials to export control list
- Bloomberg — China’s export control actions against MP Materials and USA Rare Earth
- Motley Fool — secondary impacts of export ban on MP Materials’ supply chain; Department of Defense investment details ($400 million equity, $150 million loan); Apple $500 million supply agreement
- Mexico Business News — China’s 91% share of refined rare earth output
- CSIS — April 2025 China export restrictions on heavy rare earths and magnets; disruptions across defense and industrial supply chains; Trump-Xi agreement in October 2025
- public.com — consensus analyst rating and 2026 price prediction for MP Materials
