Mortgage rates are expected to hold near 6.5% through the second half of 2026, according to forecasts from major industry groups tracking the housing market. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% as of late June 2026, up slightly from earlier in the month, and experts predict this elevated level will persist through the remainder of the year.
The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will average 6.5% in the third and fourth quarters of 2026, according to its May Mortgage Finance Forecast. Fannie Mae projects rates will hover at 6.4% for the rest of the year, while a June Reuters poll of property specialists predicted rates will ease slightly to 6.4% in Q3 and 6.3% in Q4, though it noted current mid-6% rates are “not expected to fall meaningfully any time soon.”
Rising inflation has emerged as the primary driver keeping mortgage rates elevated. According to Bankrate, inflation has pushed well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, serving as the main force behind higher mortgage rates. While the Fed held its policy rate steady at its June 2026 meeting, citing continued increases in global energy prices, mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield more closely than the federal funds rate itself. Those Treasury yields move based on investor expectations about future economic growth and inflation.
Rates have climbed roughly 50 basis points (0.50%) since the Iran war began in late February 2026, according to Forbes. Earlier in 2026, mortgage rates had dipped to a low of 5.98% in February, but have since rebounded as economic uncertainty persisted and housing affordability concerns mounted.
To put current rates in historical context, the 6.5% forecast represents a significant jump from the 2015-2016 period, when 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 3.99% and 3.79% respectively, according to Bankrate. Even the sub-3% rates seen during the COVID-19 pandemic era are unlikely to return in the foreseeable future, most analysts agree.
The stability in the 6.4-6.5% range through the second half of 2026 reflects a broader market expectation that inflation will remain sticky and the Fed will hold course on policy. A shift in either inflation trends or Federal Reserve policy could alter the outlook, but for now, homebuyers and refinancers should plan for rates to remain in this elevated band as they evaluate their options in the coming months.
Sources
- Forbes Advisor — Mortgage rate forecasts from Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association, and Reuters; current rates as of June 2026; discussion of inflation as rate driver and Iran war impact; historical context on Fed policy
- Freddie Mac — Current 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.49% as of late June 2026
- Wall Street Journal — Current mortgage rates on June 30, 2026 at 6.52%
- Bankrate — Inflation as main driver of higher mortgage rates; historical mortgage rates for 2015-2016
- U.S. News & Money — Mortgage Bankers Association forecast of 6.5% for 2026
- NerdWallet — MBA projections showing 30-year mortgage rates ending 2026 at 6.5%
