Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner holds a narrow 49%-47% lead over Republican incumbent Susan Collins in Maine’s closely watched race, according to a New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll conducted June 19-26, though his two-point edge falls within the survey’s margin of error, making the contest virtually tied.
The race is among the most consequential in the nation. Republicans currently control the Senate 53-47, and flipping Maine is central to Democrats’ path to retake the chamber in November’s midterm elections.
Platner, a 41-year-old Marine Corps veteran and oyster farmer, won Maine’s Democratic primary on June 9 with 74.6% of the vote, defeating outgoing Gov. Janet Mills, who had suspended her campaign after trailing Platner in fundraising and polling. Platner has drawn backing from progressive champions including Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
Yet Platner’s path to victory is complicated by a cascade of controversies. He has faced allegations from ex-girlfriends involving hostile behavior, reports of sexually explicit messages exchanged while married, and inflammatory posts made on Reddit. Platner has called allegations of violence untrue and apologized for his controversial online comments after they surfaced last fall.
The poll shows character concerns weighing on voters’ minds. A majority said they believe Platner lacks “good character” and the “right kind of moral values,” and nearly half say he is too extreme. By contrast, more than 6 in 10 voters said Collins has “good character” and the “right kind of moral values,” with only a third calling her too extreme. Some Democratic respondents expressed worry that Platner, who has never held elective office, would be “too inexperienced.”
Platner has acknowledged his battle with post-traumatic stress disorder from his military service—three tours with the Marines in Iraq and one with the Army National Guard in Afghanistan. In his primary victory speech, he emphasized personal transformation. “If you believe, as I do, that we can change our politics and change our country, then you must also believe that people can change,” Platner told supporters. “And the reason I believe that is because I have lived it.”
Collins, running for a sixth six-year term, faces her own vulnerabilities. A majority of Maine voters said they think she would be too supportive of President Donald Trump, and some of her own supporters worry the 73-year-old is too old to be an effective senator. She voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial in 2021 and opposed the confirmation of now-Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, but she is remembered for her 2018 vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which helped the conservative majority overturn Roe v. Wade.
Six years ago, public opinion suggested Collins faced near-certain defeat, yet she won re-election by nine points over then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon. The new poll indicates the race remains fluid as both candidates enter the final months before November.
Sources
- Fox News — Poll numbers (Platner 49%, Collins 47%), poll methodology, character and extremism concerns, voter demographics, and Platner’s controversies.
- The New York Times — Poll results, poll timing (June 19-26), and voter sentiment on character and experience.
- The Portland Press Herald — Co-conductor of the poll showing Platner’s narrow lead within margin of error.
- Wikipedia — Platner’s background as oyster farmer and Marine Corps veteran born September 1, 1984.
- Maine Morning Star — Platner’s Democratic primary victory with 74.6%, primary date of June 9, and Gov. Janet Mills’ campaign suspension.
- NBC News — Confirmation of primary results and race dynamics.
