Democratic candidate David Jolly is leading Republican Congressman Byron Donalds in the race for Florida governor, according to a new poll from Change Research conducted June 11-14, 2026. The survey shows Jolly with a 5-percentage-point advantage, leading 47 percent to 42 percent among all voters, and a 6-point edge among likely voters at 49 percent to 43 percent.
Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties, has centered his campaign on affordability issues including insurance costs, housing, and healthcare. The Change Research poll found that 66 percent of respondents indicated their personal income is falling behind cost of living, with 74 percent of unaffiliated voters expressing concern about the imbalance between income and expenses. This economic anxiety appears to be driving Jolly’s advantage in the hypothetical general election matchup.
The poll surveyed 1,273 registered voters, of whom 1,015 said they will likely vote in the 2026 election, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent. Jolly’s campaign received a further boost when he selected former Congresswoman Gwen Graham as his running mate in June. When Graham was added to the ballot test, Jolly’s support reached 50 percent.
Donalds has campaigned as a conservative successor who will enact President Donald Trump’s agenda and fight illegal immigration. Trump endorsed Donalds last month, calling him a “TOTAL WINNER” and saying he will be a “truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida.” When reached for comment about the poll, Donalds’ campaign dismissed it, with communications director Gates McGavick saying he heard Change Research “also sells tremendous ocean front property in Arizona.”
The Jolly lead defies broader Republican strength in Florida. In 2022, Governor Ron DeSantis won reelection by nearly 19 percentage points over Democrat Charlie Crist, marking the largest margin for any Florida governor in 40 years, according to WUFT. Democrats have not won a statewide election in Florida since 2018, and Republicans have expanded their voter registration advantage to 1.5 million voters. However, the Change Research poll found Jolly pulling 9 percent support from Republican voters, which his campaign views as critical to overcoming the registration disadvantage.
Change Research is widely considered a left-of-center polling firm that conducts surveys on behalf of Democratic candidates. The poll noted that biographical information provided to respondents about Jolly emphasized his anti-corruption work and his campaign priorities, while the description of Donalds focused on Trump’s endorsement and his stance against “woke culture.” Political analysts note that how candidates are presented in polls can influence results, though the survey offers insight into voter sentiment on the affordability issues Jolly has made central to his campaign.
Sources
- Florida Politics — detailed poll findings, candidate support breakdown, and voter sentiment on economic issues
- Newsweek — overall poll results, historical context on Florida Democratic performance, and campaign responses
- WUFT — 2022 gubernatorial election results and DeSantis margin of victory
