Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany party achieved its strongest regional election result ever on September 6, capturing 43.8 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, more than double its 2021 performance of 20.8 percent. The victory marks a historic breakthrough for the party, which has been classified as a right-wing extremist endeavor by German authorities, though it fell just short of securing an absolute majority in the state parliament with 39 of 83 seats.
The AfD’s surge came under the campaign leadership of 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, whose upbeat messaging and social media strategy departed sharply from the party’s earlier negative framing. The campaign slogan “Everything is possible,” launched in June, replaced the prior “enough is enough” rhetoric, according to analysis from Chatham House. Preliminary voter-flow data estimates the AfD gained 157,000 former non-voters and 83,000 former CDU voters, indicating a significant shift in electoral motivation from protest voting to active support.
The election result delivered a severe blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union, which collapsed to 17.2 percent, its lowest result in the state. The outcome reflects broader anxieties in Saxony-Anhalt, a region that has experienced significant economic decline since German reunification. The state’s population has shrunk to around 2.12 million, and corporate insolvencies rose 23.9 percent in 2025—more than twice the national increase of 10.3 percent—according to Chatham House’s analysis.
Grégoire Roos, director of Europe and Russia programs at Chatham House, characterized the result as “a historic breakthrough and, without doubt, a turning point in German democracy.” However, he noted that Saxony-Anhalt’s small population means the result should be contextualized: the AfD received roughly 576,037 votes out of Germany’s 59.2 million eligible voters. The party’s appeal centered on narratives linking migration, public service decline, and industrial restructuring, even though the state has a comparatively low foreign-national population of 7.9 percent compared to the national average of 14.9 percent.
The AfD’s near-majority position creates tactical opportunities. With only three additional seats needed for control, party leaders can pressure CDU representatives to defect or support Siegmund’s candidacy for minister-president. The BSW, a new party that crossed the 5 percent threshold, has rejected joining a “firewall” against the far right and expressed willingness to cooperate with the AfD on individual policies, particularly regarding Russia and energy, though it has ruled out supporting Siegmund as minister-president.
The victory intensifies pressure on Chancellor Merz ahead of another state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern scheduled for September 20, where AfD polls suggest it is leading. Roos warned that the AfD’s success in mobilizing disengaged voters through more sophisticated campaigning represents a challenge to mainstream parties across Europe that have traditionally relied on political stigma to contain the far right. The result also raises questions about Germany’s long-standing “firewall” strategy against extremist parties, which has now proven insufficient to contain the AfD electorally.
Sources
- Chatham House — expert analysis by Grégoire Roos on the AfD’s historic breakthrough, voter mobilization, regional economic context, and implications for German democracy
- Deutsche Welle — confirmation of the 43.8% result and the party’s landslide victory in Saxony-Anhalt
- BBC News — preliminary results showing the AfD’s commanding margin with almost 44% of the vote
- Anadolu Agency — confirmation of the 43.8% result and comparison to 2021 result of 20.8%, plus CDU collapse to 17.2%
- Alice Weidel’s X post — official party statement confirming the 43.8% figure and CDU’s 17.2% result
