U.S. commercial insurance rates moderated to 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025, continuing a gradual decline from earlier in the year and signaling a softening market as the insurance industry enters 2026 with expanding headcount plans and executive leadership changes.
The rate increase in Q4 2025 fell sharply from 5.6% in the same quarter of 2024, according to Willis Towers Watson’s Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey. Price growth moderated across most commercial lines, with commercial property recording price decreases and general liability increases continuing to ease.
The moderating rate environment reflects broader industry trends. Premium growth is forecast to decelerate to 3-4% in 2026, according to Markel’s insurance outlook, requiring underwriters to stay disciplined on risk selection and pricing after several years of steep increases. “While some lines continue to see increases, others are flattening or declining, highlighting a more measured approach across the market,” said Yi Jing, senior director of Insurance Consulting and Technology at Willis Towers Watson.
Expansion and Executive Moves Accelerate
Despite the softening rate environment, insurance companies are aggressively expanding their workforces. Half of all insurance companies plan to grow their teams in 2026, while 43% intend to hold headcount steady—a 15-year high, up 10 points from six months earlier, according to the Q1 2026 Insurance Labor Market Study conducted by The Jacobson Group in partnership with Aon’s Strategy and Technology Group. Just 7% of companies expect to reduce staff, down from 14% in July 2025.
Of the companies planning to expand, anticipated increases in business volume and market expansion are the primary drivers. Experienced professionals remain the industry’s greatest need, with 73% of insurers saying they’re most likely to hire experienced talent. Technology roles continue to top the list of hiring priorities industry-wide, reflecting continued investment in artificial intelligence and technology adoption.
Executive leadership has seen notable shifts across the sector. Boston Mutual Life Insurance Company appointed Grant David Ward as Chief Executive Officer in June 2026, succeeding Paul A. Quaranto Jr. Oakbridge Insurance announced that Robbie Smith, President and Chief Executive Officer, would transition to Executive Chairman effective July 1, 2026, with Matt James assuming the CEO role. Lockton Re appointed Robert Bisset as CEO of North America and Nick Durant as Global Vice Chairman in January 2026.
Revenue growth expectations reflect the industry’s optimism. Seventy-two percent of insurers expect to see revenue growth in 2026, primarily driven by changes in market share, according to The Jacobson Group study. Industry consolidation and mergers and acquisitions activity are also accelerating, with carriers seeking diversification and scale. Excess capital from recent profitable years is driving strategic deployments, as management teams look to boost earnings through acquisitions of specialty books of business or teams.
The combination of moderating rates and workforce expansion suggests the insurance industry is positioning itself for a transition from a hard market to a more competitive environment. Underwriters face the challenge of maintaining profitability while competing for talent and market share in a landscape where premium growth is slowing but hiring momentum remains strong.
Sources
- Willis Towers Watson — Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey Q4 2025; carriers reported 2.9% price increase in Q4 2025, down from 5.6% in Q4 2024
- The Jacobson Group — Q1 2026 Insurance Labor Market Study; 50% of companies plan headcount growth, 43% plan to hold steady, 72% expect revenue growth
- Markel — Top 10 Insurance Trends for 2026; premium growth forecast at 3-4%, industry consolidation rising
- Intellizence — Boston Mutual Life appoints Grant David Ward as CEO, June 1, 2026
- Yahoo Finance — Oakbridge Insurance announces Robbie Smith transition to Executive Chairman, Matt James as CEO, effective July 1, 2026
- Reinsurance News — Lockton Re appoints Robert Bisset as CEO North America and Nick Durant as Global Vice Chairman, January 9, 2026
