The UMass Lowell/YouGov poll finds Ken Paxton and James Talarico tied at 45% each among likely Texas voters, with 7% undecided, in a survey fielded Sept. 18–28 of 850 respondents.
The poll, released Oct. 8, shows an adjusted margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points and was analyzed by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion; the university published topline results and methodology on its website.
USA TODAY reported the UMass Lowell/YouGov finding and quoted John Cluverius, director of survey research at UMass Lowell, saying “with the race tied, anything can happen between now and the election.” USA TODAY also noted the poll’s subgroup results showing Paxton ahead with voters over 65 and Talarico stronger with younger, Hispanic and Black voters.
Recent polls have alternated between Talarico leads and tight margins, and USA TODAY listed other surveys — including The New York Times/Siena and YouGov — that showed Talarico ahead in early October. That pattern helps explain why analysts describe the race as competitive as early voting approaches on Oct. 19.
Besides the UMass Lowell result, ReconMR and other Texas pollsters published September numbers showing Talarico with narrow advantages, though several trackers place the race inside their margins of error. For readers tracking campaign developments, note that Paxton and Talarico’s standing has shifted across different pollsters in late September and early October.
UMass Lowell’s release says the survey was funded by the university, fielded by YouGov and designed and analyzed by the Center for Public Opinion. The release also reported broader findings on governors’ and presidential approval ratings that illustrate the cross-issue concerns voters cited when answering.
USA TODAY’s story added context about how Trump visits to Texas and Talarico’s recent absence from the trail have been discussed as possible factors but did not attribute a direct cause to the tie; the paper reported the poll’s sample size and subgroup breakdowns.
What this means for the race: the tie in this UMass Lowell/YouGov poll places both campaigns in a position where turnout, late messaging and undecided voters could determine the outcome; the survey’s margin of error means the measured tie is statistically possible but not definitive.
For readers who want earlier polling context and campaign exchanges, see reporting on James Talarico leads in recent Texas Senate polls and coverage of Ken Paxton presses James Talarico over 11‑day absence in Texas Senate race.
Sources
- USA TODAY — reported the UMass Lowell/YouGov poll result, quoted UMass Lowell analyst John Cluverius and summarized subgroup and comparative recent-poll findings.
- UMass Lowell — press release with topline results: Paxton 45%, Talarico 45%, sample size 850, field dates Sept. 18–28 and adjusted margin of error +/-4.5 percentage points.
