Recent Texas voter polling data show Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in multiple statewide surveys, with an early September ReconMR/Siena poll putting Talarico ahead 49% to 43% among likely voters.
The ReconMR/Siena survey, fielded Sept. 8–11 and cited in poll aggregates, reported a six-point advantage for Talarico in the U.S. Senate matchup, a result repeated in several poll compilations this month.
An AARP Texas poll published in mid-September also showed Talarico leading Paxton, with summaries of that survey placing the Democrat roughly four points ahead among likely voters, reinforcing a pattern of narrow Democratic advantages in recent statewide measures.
RealClearPolitics’ poll average for the race lists Talarico with a small lead as of late September, reflecting multiple firms’ snapshots rather than a single consensus figure; the aggregator showed a Talarico advantage in the low single digits across its average.
Polling firms use different samples and likely-voter screens, which helps explain variation between individual surveys; ReconMR and AARP both reported their numbers as measures of likely voters, according to the survey write-ups summarized in polling roundups.
Analysts caution that polling snapshots months before the election can change as turnout, advertising and late developments shift voter preferences; statewide polling averages show the Texas Senate race is competitive but not settled.
For readers checking registration ahead of voting deadlines, the site also carries a voter-registration reminder with practical instructions for Texans on the suspense list.
Sources
- RealClearPolitics — provided the poll average showing Talarico with a small lead and listed recent ReconMR/Siena results.
- Texas Tribune — summarized past and recent polling that showed Talarico leading Paxton in multiple surveys.
- Capitol Inside — compiled individual September poll findings, including the ReconMR/Siena numbers.
