A new ReconMR/Siena poll shows Gina Hinojosa leading Gov. Greg Abbott 49% to 45% among likely Texas voters, according to the poll release and crosstabs.
The ReconMR report says the poll was conducted September 8–11, 2026, among 614 likely Texas voters and reports a 4-point Hinojosa lead after earlier surveys had Abbott ahead.
The release notes independents shifted strongly toward Hinojosa, with ReconMR reporting independents favoring Hinojosa 65% to 27%, and it highlights Hinojosa’s improving favorability versus Abbott’s declining ratings.
Hinojosa’s campaign cited the ReconMR result in a fundraising statement that said she raised more than $1 million in 36 hours after the poll, while local outlets picked up the ReconMR findings and described the governor’s race as tightening.
Polling detail in the ReconMR release shows Hinojosa leads in Austin, Dallas–Fort Worth and San Antonio/South Texas, while Abbott maintains strength in rural areas, and reconMR provides crosstabs by region and party.
The same poll also shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43% for U.S. Senate, a result noted alongside the governor numbers; the ReconMR report attributes part of the movement to independents shifting toward Democratic candidates.
Political observers say individual polls are a snapshot rather than a forecast; the ReconMR release itself cautions sampling error and notes a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points for the core sample of 614 respondents.
With weeks to go in the campaign, the ReconMR finding adds another data point to a field of recent polls showing a competitive race; readers can compare this to earlier coverage and other state surveys.
For more on the Texas governor poll and its implications, see related coverage of the ReconMR result and the linked preview of the U.S. Senate contest.
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Gina Hinojosa tops Greg Abbott and Talarico leading Paxton.
Sources
- ReconMR — PDF release and crosstabs reporting the 49%–45% Hinojosa lead, independents’ split, sample period, and sample size.
- KXAN — local reporting that summarized the ReconMR/Siena poll results and noted the shift in the governor’s race.
- Gina Hinojosa campaign — campaign release referenced in media coverage reporting the post-poll fundraising haul.
