An AARP poll released September 10 found James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 48% to 44% among likely Texas voters, according to the organization’s press release and multiple news reports.
The AARP survey of 895 likely Texas voters was conducted Aug. 30–Sept. 1 and carries a margin of error of about 3.3 percentage points, the AARP press release says. The poll shows Talarico ahead statewide but also found Paxton with a strong advantage among older voters.
According to AARP and reporting in The Hill, Paxton led Talarico by 13 percentage points among Texas voters age 50 and older, a demographic the group highlighted as highly motivated and decisive in close races. AARP’s release says older Texans listed affordability, Social Security, Medicare and health care as top concerns.
The AARP numbers add to a string of recent surveys showing a tightening contest. The Hill noted Talarico posted leads in some recent polls and Emerson College and other surveys last month showed the race closer or essentially tied, illustrating varying snapshots of voter sentiment.
Campaign messaging has followed the polling: The Hill reports Talarico is presenting himself as a moderate who would follow John Cornyn’s Senate record of service, while Paxton has used GOP events to criticize Talarico’s remarks on religion and transgender athletes, according to coverage of Paxton’s remarks at a Republican convention.
Political trackers have treated the Texas Senate contest as competitive: The Hill cites the Cook Political Report’s move of the race to “Toss Up” after Paxton’s primary runoff win, and AARP’s memo underlines that older voters “could shape” both the Senate and governor contests this fall.
Internal coverage on this site provides additional context on Talarico and the race: see James Talarico edges Ken Paxton in Texas poll for background on the poll releases and Paxton’s Texas Senate race tightens to toss-up for the Cook shift and race rating; for reporting on Paxton’s ethics scrutiny see Ken Paxton faces scrutiny over financial disclosures.
Sources
- AARP — press release with topline results, sample size, dates and subgroup findings.
- The Hill — reporting summarizing the poll (48%–44%), the 50-plus subgroup split and campaign reactions.
- Quorum Report — topline numbers cited by state trackers (48%–44%).
