A new N+ Univision poll shows James Talarico edging Ken Paxton 48% to 43% in the Texas U.S. Senate race, according to USA TODAY, as the Republican midterm convention opened in Dallas on Sept. 9. The poll result places the race in a narrow, competitive range.
The N+ Univision survey, conducted Aug. 27–Sept. 4 among 1,000 registered Texas voters, reported a matched-sample equivalent margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, USA TODAY wrote. It found 7% of respondents undecided and showed shifts toward Democratic candidates since 2024.
Earlier August polling from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project also showed Talarico leading Paxton, 42% to 39%, in a poll conducted Aug. 5–13 among 1,200 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%, the Texas Politics Project reported.
Both polls paint a tight statewide contest rather than a clear advantage for either party, and outlets note the race has moved back and forth in public surveys this summer. USA TODAY’s coverage placed the N+ Univision result alongside earlier trackers that showed swings and dead heats across August and early September.
Polling details differ: the UT/Texas Politics Project poll used YouGov internet panels and reported weighted margins of error, while the N+ Univision poll used a matched propensity-score design, according to USA TODAY and the Texas Politics Project pages. Those methodological differences help explain why topline percentages vary from poll to poll.
The competition in the Senate race is one reason national and state attention has focused on the convention in Dallas. The site’s coverage of the GOP gathering noted officials and activists were meeting Sept. 9–10 as polls like the N+ Univision survey tightened the statewide picture.
Talarico’s campaign has been active this cycle; earlier coverage in this outlet tracked his legal and advertising moves against Paxton and related developments in the Senate contest. For background on campaign actions and reporting on Paxton, see Talarico seeks to unseal Paxton depositions in Texas Senate race and Talarico launches first negative TV ad attacking Paxton over corruption.
What this means for November is unsettled: multiple public trackers from August and early September show the race within or near typical poll margins, and analysts advise caution when comparing polls with different samples and field dates. USA TODAY summarized recent polls and noted the N+ Univision survey is the first released in September as the election cycle enters its final stretch.
Sources
- USA TODAY — reported the N+ Univision poll showing Talarico 48% to Paxton 43% and provided poll dates, sample size and the equivalent margin of error.
- University of Texas / Texas Politics Project — published the Aug. 5–13 poll showing Talarico 42% to Paxton 39% and detailed methodology including sample size and margin of error.
