Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s U.S. Senate race has tightened to a toss-up as the latest polling shows his Democratic challenger James Talarico leading by less than a percentage point, a dramatic shift from the Republican-favored race of just weeks earlier.
A poll conducted August 24–26 by Overton Insights and the Texas Public Policy Foundation found Talarico at 44 percent and Paxton at 43.6 percent among likely voters, with 12.6 percent undecided. The survey of 1,167 voters carried a margin of error of 2.9 percent, meaning the race is statistically tied.
The tightening reflects a broader shift in professional political assessments. On August 20, the Cook Political Report moved the Texas Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up,” the most competitive rating. The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released August 24 showed Talarico at 42 percent and Paxton at 39 percent, also signaling a Democratic edge.
The shift is particularly striking because Paxton has faced persistent legal challenges that have shadowed his candidacy. He was indicted on felony securities fraud charges in 2015, though prosecutors dropped those charges in 2024 after he agreed to pay nearly $300,000 in restitution. The Texas House impeached him in 2026 on abuse of office and bribery charges, but the Texas Senate acquitted him of those allegations. Despite the legal cloud, Paxton defeated incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary runoff on May 26, 2026.
A significant financial disparity has emerged in the general election. As of September 2026, Talarico had raised $68.6 million compared to Paxton’s $9.25 million, according to campaign finance data cited by Ballotpedia. That funding gap has allowed Talarico to build a substantial advertising presence, including a first negative TV ad attacking Paxton over corruption launched in late August.
The race differs markedly from Texas’s last competitive Senate contest. In 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 percentage points of incumbent Ted Cruz, but Cruz never trailed in polling throughout the race. Paxton, by contrast, has fallen behind in multiple recent surveys and now faces a race that major handicappers consider a true toss-up heading into the fall.
Democrats see a path to their first statewide electoral victory since 1994. President Donald Trump’s low approval numbers in Texas—55 percent of poll respondents disapproved of his job performance in the Overton Insights survey—may provide additional headwind for the Republican nominee. Schumer sees path to Senate control as Texas, Iowa races shift to toss-ups, signaling that national Democrats view the state as critical to their Senate strategy.
The race remains fluid. Undecided voters in the Overton Insights poll showed a slight Republican lean, with 53 percent of the undecided group leaning toward Paxton compared to 47 percent toward Talarico, suggesting some upside for the Republican if he can consolidate support.
Sources
- The Texan — latest Overton Insights/TPPF poll (Aug 24–26), showing Talarico at 44%, Paxton at 43.6%
- Cook Political Report — designation of Texas Senate race as Toss-up (Aug 20, 2026)
- Center for Politics, University of Virginia — Crystal Ball rating shift to Toss-up (Aug 26, 2026)
- Ballotpedia — campaign finance totals as of September 2026 (Talarico $68.6M, Paxton $9.25M)
- Houston Public Media — University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showing Talarico 42%, Paxton 39% (Aug 24, 2026)
- ProPublica — Paxton’s securities fraud charges dropped, federal corruption probe closed (Apr 4, 2025)
- CNN — Paxton’s legal history and impeachment (May 26, 2026)
