Gina Hinojosa tops Greg Abbott in ReconMR/Siena poll

The ReconMR/Siena poll released Sept. 17, 2026 shows Gina Hinojosa leading Gov. Greg Abbott 49% to 45% among likely Texas voters, the first published survey to put the Democratic nominee ahead in the governor’s race.

The ReconMR release, provided as a PDF to news outlets and reported by KXAN, says the survey of 614 likely voters was conducted Sept. 8–11 and carries a margin of error of ±4.3 percentage points.

A crowd of anonymous voters gathered outside a generic community center, clusters talking and checking flyers, an information table in the foreground with pamphlets, overcast late-afternoon light

ReconMR’s September topline shows Hinojosa at 49% and Abbott at 45%, with 3% saying someone else and 4% undecided, and the memo notes Hinojosa has improved among independents and in major metro areas including Austin, Dallas–Fort Worth and San Antonio/South Texas.

The poll also reports James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 49%–43% for U.S. Senate and finds voters prefer Abbott on border security while favoring Hinojosa on affordability and water management — points highlighted in ReconMR’s summary tables.

An empty campaign yard sign rack with generic blank sign holders on a suburban lawn, morning light, no branding or text visible

News outlets noted the ReconMR/Siena result is an outlier for the governor’s race: KXAN wrote that four of six September polls showed Hinojosa leading, tied, or within the margin of error and that this is the first poll to put her ahead, while Nexstar linked the full ReconMR PDF release in its report.

ReconMR’s memo traces Hinojosa’s movement to rising favorability — the release shows her favorability at 48% favorable, 27% unfavorable, while Abbott’s favorability is reported at 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable.

The ReconMR release says the sample included 365 respondents by phone and 249 via text-to-web, and that weighting used the state voter file to match demographics; it notes sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error in any poll.

For background on other Texas polling this month, see earlier coverage of James Talarico’s lead over Ken Paxton in a separate poll.

Talarico edges Paxton in Texas poll and related reporting has followed the Senate contest closely, while another internal roundup looked at recent Texas House and district races.

Sources

ReconMR (poll PDF) — September 17, 2026 ReconMR/Siena Texas Poll release and topline tables showing Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 45%, surveyed Sept. 8–11, n=614, MOE ±4.3 points.
KXAN — reported the ReconMR/Siena poll and linked the ReconMR PDF in its Sept. 17, 2026 story noting Hinojosa leads Abbott by four points.