Jamie Dimon told CNBC that investors may be underestimating global risks and said he wouldn’t buy equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at current prices.
In an interview released Monday, Dimon said markets aren’t fully pricing in “geopolitical and fiscal threats,” naming wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions with China and rising military spending alongside large government deficits as key concerns.
Dimon added he would avoid long-dated Treasurys personally, saying that even if inflation returns to 2% the 10‑year yield “should probably be at 4% to 4.5%,” a view he shared on the interview. He also said he wouldn’t be a buyer of the broader stock market at current valuations, though he might buy select individual companies.
Dimon framed the risk as the kind of shock that might not be visible until it happens: “It’s possible something’s baked in, but what’s not baked in is what actually happens,” he said, urging caution despite recent market resilience and strong bank earnings that have supported investor optimism.
Markets have shrugged off some conflicts as the S&P 500 has climbed, but Dimon warned persistent budget deficits and higher military spending could force higher interest rates over time, pressuring asset prices and government financing costs.
Analysts and investors will watch how those fiscal and geopolitical stresses interact with market leverage and ETFs, risks Dimon said have made the system more vulnerable to a single shock. His comments mirror long-standing concerns he has raised in previous public letters and interviews.
For investors weighing allocation right now, Dimon’s remarks add to other recent warnings about stretched equity valuations and geopolitical uncertainty.
Related coverage earlier this month flagged elevated equity risk premia and market sensitivity to oil-price moves tied to Middle East tensions; those stories underscore the cross-asset risks Dimon referenced.
For further reading on market warnings and recent moves, see coverage of the Fed’s note on equity risk and the market reaction to Middle East tensions.
Fed warns S&P 500 equity risk premium near dot-com bubble lows and Dow Jones falls 1% as oil prices surge on Middle East tensions.
Sources
- CNBC — interview transcript and reporting that Dimon said investors are underestimating geopolitical and fiscal risks and that he would avoid buying equities and long-dated U.S. Treasurys at current prices.
