Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted the Strait of Hormuz could become “irrelevant” within two years as the Trump administration pursues oil pipeline alternatives and expanded energy production, but energy experts warn the forecast dramatically understates the waterway’s enduring importance to global oil markets.
Speaking to Fox Business in early September, Bessent argued that 50 to 70 percent of energy products normally shipped through the strait would be transported via underground pipelines instead, making the crucial chokepoint “just another body of water,” according to NPR. The statement reflects the administration’s broader strategy to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions with Iran.
The administration’s confidence rests partly on existing pipeline infrastructure and new projects under development across the Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, known as the Petroline, already operates at full capacity of 7 million barrels per day, routing crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and bypassing the strait entirely, according to energy analysis from Kpler and Reuters. The United Arab Emirates is fast-tracking a $3 billion pipeline expansion to its port of Fujairah, targeting completion by mid-2027, according to NPR’s reporting on International Energy Agency data.
Yet experts across the energy sector dispute Bessent’s timeline and the viability of making the strait obsolete. Robert McNally, a former senior director for international energy under President George W. Bush and now president of Rapidan Energy Group, told NPR that “irrelevant is way too strong and overstated.” He noted that even if all planned pipelines were completed, the Strait of Hormuz would remain essential because the waterway handles approximately 20 million barrels per day—roughly one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Alternative routes, McNally added, remain vulnerable to Iranian attack just as the pipelines themselves could be targeted.
The International Energy Agency’s senior oil market analyst, Rebecca Schulz, told NPR that even when major pipeline projects finish, “the amount of oil that will still need to pass through the Strait for total Gulf exports to return to pre-war levels could exceed 10 million barrels per day—around half of prewar levels.” David Goldwyn, a former U.S. State Department special envoy for energy, estimated new pipelines would amount to only 10 to 12 million barrels per day—significantly below pre-conflict volumes. “It’s a partial solution,” Goldwyn said, according to NPR.
The Trump administration’s energy strategy extends beyond pipeline construction. In late August, the administration announced it had secured majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in Venezuela, according to a White House fact sheet and reporting from NPR and Reuters. The deal aims to boost U.S. energy independence and reduce reliance on Middle Eastern oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The administration also announced Project Freedom in May 2026, an operation to guide ships through alternative southern routes around the strait’s traditional channels, according to Congressional Research Service documentation.
The Strait of Hormuz has been a flashpoint since February 2026, when the U.S. and Israel launched military operations against Iran, triggering Iranian restrictions on shipping and mine-laying that severely disrupted traffic. The disruption has pushed global oil prices above $95 per barrel at times, driving gas prices in the U.S. to $4.09 per gallon as of early September, up from $2.98 before the conflict, according to AAA data cited by The Hill. Experts warn that continued vulnerability of shipping routes, including the Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea where Yemen’s Houthi rebels have launched attacks, means regional agreements remain vital to long-term energy security.
Sources
- NPR — Treasury Secretary Bessent’s claim that pipelines will make the Strait irrelevant within two years; expert analysis from Robert McNally, Rebecca Schulz (IEA), and David Goldwyn on why the prediction is overstated; pipeline capacity figures and construction timelines.
- The Hill — Bessent’s statement that the Strait will be “worthless” in two years; U.S. crude oil import data from the Energy Information Administration; current oil and gas prices.
- White House Fact Sheet — Trump administration’s announcement of majority control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves.
- Reuters — Confirmation of the U.S.-Venezuela oil deal and its scope.
- Kpler — Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline operating at 7 million barrels per day capacity; UAE pipeline expansion targeting mid-2027 completion.
- Congressional Research Service — Project Freedom announcement and May 2026 operation details.
