Some Republicans in competitive races are telling President Donald Trump’s political operation he cannot campaign in their districts this fall, even in seats he won by double digits two years ago. “We’ve told them he cannot come,” a senior Republican working on a competitive House race told Politico earlier today. “Candidly, he would not be helpful here.”
The rejection reflects Trump’s historically low approval ratings as the November midterms approach. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s approval at 33 percent, the lowest reading in that poll’s history, with 71 percent disapproving of his handling of the economy. A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll showed his approval among Republicans specifically has fallen from 89 percent in April 2025 to 75 percent.
Four Republican operatives said battleground Republicans have relayed the message directly to Trump’s team, while three others said leading GOP pollsters have advised vulnerable incumbents to avoid mentioning the president on the trail altogether. Yet Trump has signaled no intention of staying home. At a Rose Garden dinner Wednesday, he told battleground Republicans he would be heavily involved in the final 30 days of the campaign.
The dilemma facing Republican candidates is acute. One House Republican in a competitive race described the guidance from pollsters and operatives in stark terms: “You’re f***ed if you mention him too much, and you’re also f***ed if you don’t stay in his good graces.” Trump’s super PAC holds a war chest of more than $400 million that Republican campaigns desperately need deployed, giving the president leverage over candidates who might otherwise keep their distance.
The historical precedent is sobering. Gallup recorded Trump’s approval at 40 percent during the week of September 3-9, 2018. That November, Republicans lost 41 House seats. Trump is now polling below that figure in most national surveys, and the Cook Political Report has Democrats favored to retake the House.
Party officials are publicly rejecting the premise that Trump is a liability. Representative Richard Hudson, who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, told Politico that “based on our polling, the President’s a net positive in every district,” and said he has been encouraging Trump to hold more rallies. The Republican National Committee warned that members who keep the president at arm’s length “risk alienating their base” and losing 15 to 20 percent of their key Republican voters.
Yet some Republicans are threading the needle carefully. New York Representative Mike Lawler, representing a district Kamala Harris won in 2024, is running an advertisement built around Trump calling him “a pain in the a**” at a recent rally. Michigan Representative Tom Barrett, who attended the White House dinner, is skipping next week’s Republican midterm convention in Dallas. “I can’t control what the president’s going to say at the convention,” he said, “but I can control where I’m at.”
The tension reflects a broader Republican campaign dilemma: Trump outlines midterm strategy to campaign in 35 key races, even as candidates in the most competitive districts privately say his presence hurts them. Trump’s super PAC sits on $400M as Republicans urge more midterm spending, and Thune warns Republicans could lose Senate control in November midterms. One battleground operative told Politico the debate may be beside the point: “At this point, Trump is baked into everything.”
Sources
- The Independent — Republicans in competitive races telling Trump he cannot campaign in their districts, Trump’s approval at 33 percent, his approval among Republicans fallen to 75 percent, Trump’s commitment to campaign heavily in final 30 days, Republican operatives’ dilemma, historical 2018 comparison, Trump’s super PAC war chest of $400 million, party officials’ public defense and warnings, individual candidates’ strategies.
- Politico — Reporting on Republican rejection of Trump’s campaign involvement, polling guidance to candidates, party officials’ statements.
