Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressed concern Tuesday that Republicans could lose control of the chamber in November’s midterm elections, citing a competitive political environment shaped by high gas prices and the president’s declining approval rating. “I worry about that, for sure,” Thune told KELO, a TV station in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. “I’m a realist, and I just think you — I don’t ever try and sugarcoat things. I think it’s a competitive environment right now.”
Democrats need to pick up four seats to gain a Senate majority, according to the Washington Post. The party has grown increasingly optimistic about their chances as Trump’s approval rating has declined and gas prices remain elevated due to the ongoing conflict with Iran, the outlet reported.
Thune’s warning echoes concerns he raised in mid-August about the threats facing Republicans. On August 14, speaking at Southeast Technical College in Sioux Falls, he cautioned that GOP infighting could jeopardize the party’s majority, urging Republicans to “turn our fire on Democrats, not on each other,” according to reporting from AgroLatam. Economic anxiety, high fuel prices, and geopolitical uncertainty were reshaping the political environment, he said then.
The Senate map has tightened considerably. The Cook Political Report last month shifted Iowa and Texas—both Republican-held seats—into its “toss-up” category, according to The Hill. Decision Desk HQ reported that Republicans have a 52 percent chance of winning the Senate majority, while Democrats have a 48 percent chance, making it essentially a toss-up and the closest the two parties have been since June, The Hill noted.
Thune acknowledged that Republicans face the traditional political headwinds associated with midterm elections—the party in power typically loses seats. He observed in December that it is “not uncommon” for the president’s party to face challenges, noting that opposition voters tend to be more motivated and turnout patterns differ in off-year elections compared to presidential years.
Thune praised the quality of Republican candidates in Senate battlegrounds, including Senator Susan Collins in Maine and former Representative Mike Rogers in Michigan, but acknowledged the headwinds they face. The Iran conflict and resulting disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have kept gas prices elevated, an issue Thune said weighs on voters’ minds. “The challenge we have right now is Strait of Hormuz and the economic impact that’s having on gas prices in this country,” he told KELO.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, by contrast, has expressed growing optimism about Democrats’ path to the majority. The Washington Post reported that Schumer has become more confident as the political environment shifts, citing Trump’s declining approval and persistent high gas prices.
Thune’s comments come amid tension with President Trump over the SAVE America Act, a voting-related measure Trump has pushed the Senate to pass. Thune has resisted calls to eliminate the filibuster to advance it, arguing the votes simply are not there. The dispute underscores the broader challenge for Republicans: protecting their Senate majority while managing internal party divisions as the November election approaches.
Sources
- Washington Post — Thune’s statement to KELO about concern over losing Senate control, Democrats’ need for four seats, Schumer’s optimism, and Trump’s approval rating decline.
- The Hill — Thune’s direct quotes on being “a realist,” Cook Political Report’s shift of Iowa and Texas to toss-up, Decision Desk HQ’s 52-48 Senate majority odds, and context on Republican candidates.
- AgroLatam — Thune’s August 14 warning about GOP infighting, economic anxiety, and high fuel prices as threats to the Republican majority.
