Ohio’s governor race is tightening as Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s massive spending advantage fails to translate into a commanding lead, with prediction markets shifting toward Democrat Amy Acton in late August. Polymarket gave Acton a 54 percent chance of victory on August 28, compared to Ramaswamy’s 47 percent, while Kalshi showed Acton ahead 55 percent to 45 percent—a reversal from days earlier when both platforms had priced the contest as essentially even.
The shift underscores a paradox in the race: Ramaswamy and his allies have spent or reserved $82.3 million on television and digital advertising this year, more than seven times the $11.1 million in expected pro-Acton spending. Yet despite the spending advantage, the Republican nominee has not pulled away in public polling, which shows a race too close to call.
Recent surveys reflect the tightness. A Fox News poll conducted August 6 to 10 put Ramaswamy ahead 50 percent to 48 percent, within the margin of error. A Tulchin Research survey from July 29 to August 4 found Acton leading 46 percent to 44 percent. A New York Times/Siena College poll from June had them tied at 47 percent. Ramaswamy spent $21.18 million in 2026, with 65.1 percent directed to advertising and media, according to campaign finance reports filed in late August.
Acton has centered her campaign on affordability, arguing that Ohioans are struggling with the cost of living. Her campaign manager, Philip Stein, told Newsweek that the close polling showed voters were “not falling for” the attacks financed by Ramaswamy and his allies. Ramaswamy has promised to be “the most conservative governor this state has ever seen,” campaigning on lower property taxes and a phased end to the state income tax.
The competitiveness of the race tests whether Ohio's Republican lean in presidential elections extends to open-seat contests. President Donald Trump carried the state by 11.2 percentage points in 2024, but Ramaswamy’s loss of his lead in prediction markets suggests the Republican advantage may not be automatic in a polarizing matchup. The general election is November 3.
Sources
- Newsweek — Ramaswamy’s prediction market loss to Acton, polling aggregation, and campaign messaging (August 28, 2026)
- Signal Ohio and Signal Cincinnati — Spending totals of $82.3 million for Ramaswamy and allies versus $11.1 million for pro-Acton ads (August 27, 2026)
- NBC4i — Ramaswamy’s $21.18 million spending in 2026 with 65.1 percent on advertising (August 26, 2026)
- WLWT — Race tightening in late August (August 27, 2026)
