Eric Barlow, a rancher and Wyoming state senator, won the Republican primary for governor on August 18, defeating Megan Degenfelder, the candidate endorsed by President Donald Trump, with 45% of the vote to her 29.7%. The victory in deep-red Wyoming marks another setback for Trump’s primary endorsement record, which has shown unexpected vulnerabilities this election cycle.
Barlow, a fourth-generation rancher and former House speaker, centered his campaign on protecting public lands, funding public schools, and expanding rural healthcare access. Degenfelder, the state’s superintendent of public instruction, leaned heavily on her Trump endorsement, with her campaign and outside groups running repeated attack ads that cast Barlow as too liberal to lead Wyoming. Despite those efforts, Barlow overcame both the attacks and Trump’s backing.
Barlow’s win adds to a growing pattern of Trump-endorsed losses in the 2026 primary season. So far, 10 Trump-endorsed candidates have lost their races, nearly matching his worst year in 2022, when 11 candidates he endorsed lost, according to reporting on the primary results.
Trump’s endorsement power has particularly weakened in gubernatorial races. According to CNN’s analysis, Trump-endorsed candidates have lost in 42% of open gubernatorial primaries where he was not backing an incumbent—5 out of 12 races. This contrasts sharply with his historically strong primary endorsement record in House and Senate races, where he has maintained much higher success rates.
A Broader Pattern of Endorsement Losses
The Wyoming race reflects a wider shift in Trump’s political influence. Earlier in August, former MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell lost his Minnesota gubernatorial primary despite Trump’s support. In the same week, Trump-backed candidates fell in Florida as well: Rep. Cory Mills and House candidate Catalina Lauf both lost their primaries. Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, Iowa Rep. Randy Feenstra, and South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette all fell in their gubernatorial primaries this year despite Trump’s endorsement.
Despite the recent losses, Trump’s overall endorsement success rate remains high. According to Ballotpedia, 97% of Trump-endorsed candidates won their primaries through early July 2026. However, the concentration of losses in statewide races—particularly governorships—suggests that Trump’s influence may be more limited when candidates run on his endorsement alone rather than on local record or appeal.
Barlow will face Democrat Kenneth Casner, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, in the November general election. Wyoming is a solidly Republican state, making Barlow the likely next governor.
Sources
- Politico — Barlow’s campaign focus on public lands, schools, and rural healthcare; Degenfelder’s reliance on Trump endorsement and attack ads; context on Trump’s broader endorsement losses in 2026
- CNN — Analysis showing Trump-endorsed candidates lost in 42% of open gubernatorial primaries (5 out of 12)
- U.S. News & World Report — Barlow’s vote share (45%) and Degenfelder’s (29.7%); confirmation of general election matchup with Casner
- Ballotpedia — Overall Trump endorsement success rate of 97% in 2026 primaries through July; comparison to 2022 losses (11 candidates)
- Washington Post (via Facebook) — Confirmation that 10 Trump-endorsed candidates have lost in 2026, nearly matching 2022’s 11 losses
