President Donald Trump suffered his most concentrated series of endorsement defeats of the 2026 primary cycle on Tuesday, when three Republican candidates he backed lost races in Florida and Wyoming, marking what political observers described as the worst night for his endorsement record this election season.
Trump-endorsed Rep. Cory Mills lost his reelection bid in Florida’s 7th Congressional District to former television reporter Ryan Elijah, who won by double digits. Mills had been among Trump’s strongest supporters in Congress since his 2022 election, but faced mounting controversy from a House Ethics Committee investigation into allegations of dating violence and campaign finance violations, which Mills denies.
In Florida’s 19th District, conservative media executive Jim Schwartzel defeated Trump-endorsed Catalina Lauf in a crowded primary field to succeed Byron Donalds, who left the seat to run for governor. Schwartzel led with roughly 29 percent of the vote to Lauf’s 22 percent, according to reported results. Trump issued his endorsement of Lauf late in the campaign, only last week, after much of the early voting had already taken place.
In Wyoming, state Sen. Eric Barlow defeated Trump-endorsed Megan Degenfelder, the state’s superintendent of public instruction, in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Barlow campaigned on “respectful, effective leadership” and emphasized Wyoming issues including public lands, schools and rural healthcare, while Degenfelder leaned heavily on Trump’s support.
The three losses do not erase Trump’s broader endorsement success. On the same night, Trump-backed Byron Donalds easily won the Republican nomination for Florida governor with approximately 47.8 percent of the vote, positioning himself as the favorite in November’s general election. Across the 2026 primary season, Trump-endorsed candidates have won 220 of 227 races, a 97 percent success rate, according to Ballotpedia data. However, two-thirds of the nine total Trump endorsement losses recorded by Ballotpedia occurred within roughly three weeks in August, suggesting a recent shift in the pattern.
Political scientist Justin Vaughn noted that gubernatorial races present a different test for Trump’s endorsement power than House contests. “House races have become extraordinarily nationalized, particularly in primaries, where party and presidential loyalty can be powerful shortcuts for voters,” Vaughn told Newsweek. “Conversely, voters are more likely to ask if a candidate for governor seems capable of actually running their state, and established state political relationships and reputations matter more.”
The recent defeats suggest that while Trump’s endorsement remains a powerful signal in Republican primaries—capable of generating national attention and establishing ideological credibility—it does not automatically settle every competitive primary, especially when local concerns or candidate-specific liabilities push in the opposite direction. A White House official told Politico before Tuesday’s contests that Trump had a 98 percent success rate and called his support “the most powerful endorsement in the history of American politics.” Yet the losses demonstrate that voters can remain strongly supportive of Trump while rejecting one of his endorsed candidates based on candidate quality, controversy, electability or experience.
The next test of Trump’s influence comes on August 25, when South Carolina Senator Darline Graham faces a runoff in her bid to secure the GOP nomination to replace her late brother on November’s ballot. Earlier losses this August included MyPillow founder Mike Lindell in Minnesota’s gubernatorial primary and Rep. Andy Ogles in Tennessee.
Sources
- The Hill — Trump-endorsed candidates’ losses in Florida and Wyoming primaries; details on Mills, Lauf, Degenfelder, and Barlow races
- PBS News — Primary election results and takeaways; Donalds’ gubernatorial nomination victory; details on Florida and Wyoming races
- Newsweek/Yahoo News — Analysis of Trump’s endorsement losses; Vaughn’s commentary on gubernatorial races; White House official’s endorsement success rate claims
- Ballotpedia — Trump endorsement win-loss record: 220 of 227 victories; breakdown of August losses
