Donald Trump’s endorsement record in Republican primaries has suffered a notable deterioration this summer, with high-profile losses mounting in gubernatorial and House races. Mike Lindell, the MyPillow founder and close Trump ally, lost Minnesota’s GOP gubernatorial primary to state House Speaker Lisa Demuth on August 12, falling by more than 10 percentage points. Days earlier, on August 6, U.S. Representative Andy Ogles of Tennessee lost his primary bid for a House seat to former agriculture commissioner Charlie Hatcher, despite Trump’s backing.
The setbacks mark a sharp departure from Trump’s historically dominant primary endorsement record. According to a Politico analysis published August 15, Trump has backed 17 candidates in open Republican gubernatorial primaries this year. Of those, 10 have won their nominations, but 4 have lost—a striking reversal from his near-perfect track record in previous cycles.
Beyond Lindell and Ogles, Trump’s gubernatorial endorsements have failed in Iowa and Georgia as well. In Iowa, Trump-backed Congressman Randy Feenstra lost to businessman Zach Lahn. In Georgia, Rick Jackson, who injected over $100 million of his personal wealth into his campaign, defeated Burt Jones, a longtime Trump ally who had the president’s backing from the outset. Trump’s picks also faced difficulty in South Carolina’s gubernatorial primary, where he initially endorsed Lt. Governor Pamela Evette before pivoting to a double endorsement in a last-minute attempt to salvage the race.
Trump’s House endorsements have also stumbled. In Michigan, Amir Hassan lost to Tom Smith, a retired engineer who had dropped out of the race in mid-July before re-entering to endorse another candidate. After Ogles’ defeat, Trump claimed he had “remained loyal” to the congressman “even though he had virtually no chance of winning,” citing Ogles’ various controversies since his 2022 election, including a now-deleted homophobic social media post and an FBI search of his phone during a 2024 campaign finance investigation.
Political analysts and Republican insiders attribute Trump’s slipping endorsement power to several factors. Trump’s approval ratings have slumped, with recent polling showing significant erosion in his standing. Additionally, Trump has at times deferred to loyalty over electability in his endorsements, potentially putting his record at risk. In some cases, he waited until the last minute to issue endorsements, limiting their mobilizing effect. His campaign rallies, once a hallmark of his primary strategy, have been largely replaced by brief telerallies on the eve of elections.
Republican donors and strategists granted anonymity to Politico offered candid assessments of the shift. “He can’t impose his will over bad candidates or candidates that have baggage,” one donor said. Another noted that Trump’s focus on national issues—such as international conflicts or national political figures—doesn’t always resonate with voters in gubernatorial races, which hinge on local concerns. A third donor observed that Trump “can’t tell voters what to do” when his remarks conflict with their instincts.
The White House has pushed back on criticism of Trump’s endorsement record. A White House official cited a 98 percent success rate across 238 endorsements and 233 wins, though the official did not provide the full endorsement list. Ballotpedia’s similar tracking includes many effectively uncontested races, such as incumbents running unopposed, which inflates the overall success rate. A senior White House official acknowledged that “when you’re making so many endorsements, you’re bound to have a few that don’t go well.”
Trump’s endorsement power will face fresh tests in coming weeks. In Florida, his gubernatorial nominee, Representative Bryon Donalds, is set to compete in the primary later this month. In South Carolina, Senator Darline Graham, whom Trump has backed, faces a runoff against Freedom Caucus stalwart Representative Ralph Norman. These races will provide clearer measures of whether Trump’s losses this summer signal a deeper erosion of his influence within the Republican Party or merely a temporary correction in an otherwise dominant endorsement record.
Sources
- Politico — Trump’s gubernatorial endorsement record, House race losses, White House response, and analysis of endorsement power decline
- NBC News — Andy Ogles’ loss to Charlie Hatcher in Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District primary on August 6
- The New York Times — Ogles’ primary defeat and Trump’s endorsement backing
- Associated Press — Tennessee primary results and Ogles’ loss
- The Guardian — Mike Lindell’s loss to Lisa Demuth in Minnesota GOP gubernatorial primary and broader Trump endorsement pattern
- Sky News — Lindell as third Trump endorsee to lose in 2026 primaries
- The Hill — Lindell’s Minnesota gubernatorial primary loss and Trump endorsement impact
- New Republic — Lindell’s defeat to Demuth by double digits and Trump endorsement losses
- Washington Examiner — Trump-backed candidates losing primaries and endorsement power erosion
