Stock market futures fell on July 13 as renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran sent oil prices surging and chip stocks tumbled on lingering concerns about artificial intelligence spending sustainability. S&P 500 futures declined 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1%, signaling a rough opening for equities at a critical week for markets.
The U.S. and Iran traded fresh barrages of strikes over the weekend, disrupting confidence after a tentative ceasefire had held for weeks. Crude oil prices responded sharply: Brent international futures rose 3.8% to $78.89 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate U.S. futures climbed 3.7% to $74.04 a barrel in early trading Monday, according to Barron’s. Investors worried about potential disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.
“Reports of damage to vessels, intercepted missiles and drones, and strikes on military and energy-linked sites across the Gulf underscore the widening scope of the conflict,” Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid said in Barron’s. “Oil markets have reacted.”
Chip Stocks Slide Amid AI Spending Doubts
Semiconductor stocks bore the brunt of Monday’s selling pressure, with memory-chip maker SK Hynix’s South Korean-listed shares slumping 15%, dragging the tech-heavy KOSPI Composite index 9% lower, according to Barron’s. The weakness reflected broader investor anxiety about whether hyperscalers—the massive cloud and AI infrastructure companies—can sustain record spending on artificial intelligence projects.
Wall Street has watched the artificial-intelligence trade run out of steam in recent weeks amid worries about how long so-called hyperscalers can maintain their aggressive spending targets. Concerns over hyperscalers’ debt-funded AI spending have contributed to the semiconductor selloff, according to Reuters, as investors question whether the returns on massive capital expenditures will justify the investments.
The yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note was up 1 basis point to 4.57% on Monday, reflecting expectations that higher oil prices could reignite inflation pressures. The International Monetary Fund had already lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3%, down from 3.1% in April, citing both the Middle East conflict and pressurized AI spending, according to NPR.
Historically, geopolitical shocks have created only temporary market dislocations. According to Winthrop Wealth, the S&P 500 has returned an average of +4.6% six months after a geopolitical shock, suggesting that despite Monday’s losses, longer-term recovery is typical when tensions ease. The current week will test investor resolve, with consumer and producer price reports due and major banks including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs reporting earnings as the broader earnings season ramps up.
Sources
- Barron’s — Stock futures decline, chip stocks slide, oil spikes on U.S.-Iran escalation, SK Hynix shares down 15%
- Reuters — Hyperscaler debt-funded AI spending concerns contributed to semiconductor selloff
- NPR — IMF lowers 2026 global growth forecast to 3%, cites Middle East conflict and AI spending pressures
- Winthrop Wealth — S&P 500 average return of +4.6% six months after geopolitical shock
