Democrats hold a 5-point edge in congressional preferences ahead of the 2026 midterms, with a new NBC News poll showing voters want Democratic control of Congress despite ongoing political headwinds for both parties.
The poll, conducted from May 29 through June 7 and released June 14, found that 49 percent of 2,400 registered voters want Democrats to control Congress after the November elections, while 44 percent prefer Republicans maintain control and 7 percent remain undecided, according to The Hill.
The 5-point Democratic advantage is essentially unchanged from the same survey conducted in March, when Democrats held a 6-point lead. That consistency masks significant underlying dynamics: President Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 42 percent among registered voters, marking the lowest point of his second term, per NBC News.
Trump’s weak standing is reshaping the electoral landscape. Independents lean toward Democrats by a 12-point margin (46%-34%), and majorities of Black and Latino voters, voters under 50, and those with college degrees prefer Democratic control. Republicans retain an edge among men, white voters, and those without college education.
For Democrats, the House presents a more achievable target than the Senate. The party needs to flip just three House seats to gain a majority, even after redistricting narrowed the competitive battlefield, according to The Hill. Republicans currently hold a slim 218-212 majority, with independent Rep. Kevin Kiley of California caucusing with the GOP. The Cook Political Report rates 14 of the 18 toss-up House seats as currently held by Republicans.
The Senate math is far steeper. Democrats would need to flip four Republican-held seats to secure a majority. The Cook Political Report rates one seat—held by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina—as leaning Democratic, while two races (Susan Collins’s bid for a sixth term in Maine and Jon Husted’s attempt to win a full term in Ohio) are rated as toss-ups. Democrats also hold hopes in Alaska and Texas despite those races being rated as GOP leans, per The Hill.
Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, characterized the numbers as challenging for Republicans but not catastrophic. McInturff noted that Democrats held larger advantages in recent “blue wave” years, particularly 2018, when they netted 40 House seats.
The November elections come as voter sentiment about the country’s direction has darkened. Fifty-six percent of registered voters say America’s best years are behind it, compared to 40 percent who believe the country’s best years are still ahead. Nearly 80 percent say the American Dream is harder to attain now than a generation ago, according to NBC News.
Sources
- The Hill — NBC News poll results showing 5-point Democratic edge, Senate and House race ratings, and Cook Political Report analysis
- NBC News — Full poll details including approval ratings, demographic breakdowns, and historical comparisons to previous cycles
