Oil prices fell sharply on June 12, 2026, as the U.S. and Iran moved closer to an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift a U.S. naval blockade, easing global energy supply concerns that have driven prices to multi-month highs.
U.S. crude oil futures fell 3.2% to close at $84.88 per barrel, while Brent futures, the international benchmark, lost 3.4% to settle at $87.33, according to CNBC. The decline marked the largest weekly drop in oil prices since deal negotiations intensified.
A senior Trump administration official said the U.S. sees an 80% chance that Washington and Tehran will sign an agreement in the coming days. “It’s not 100%,” the official said, according to CNBC. “Their system is very complicated. Most of the people that we’ve been speaking to and most of the people who have authority within their system want to sign this deal, but not everybody.”
The proposed deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran had effectively closed following military strikes in late February, lift the U.S. naval blockade, dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, and remove its enriched uranium, the official said. Iran would receive financial incentives if it complies with the agreement.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi signaled optimism on the talks, saying a memorandum of understanding “has never been closer,” according to CNBC. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has mediated the talks, confirmed that “a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps.”
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a quarter of global oil flows, making it one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. When Iran closed the waterway in late February following the U.S. and Israeli military strikes, it triggered the largest oil market disruption in history, according to Wikipedia. Global oil supply crashed by 10.1 million barrels per day in March, the World Bank reported, sending prices to wartime highs above $126 per barrel.
A reopening of the strait would reverse months of supply constraints that have kept energy markets volatile. Oil prices have surged roughly 20% since the conflict began in February, despite the recent decline. The uncertainty over deal negotiations has kept traders on edge, with prices swinging sharply on each new signal from Washington or Tehran.
However, significant obstacles remain. The Trump administration and Iranian officials have disputed details of the proposed agreement, with Iran releasing a document that appeared more favorable to Tehran than what U.S. officials described. Trump called the Iranian text “totally false” and accused Iran of leaking misinformation to the media. Iranian hardliners, according to U.S. officials, were attempting to portray the deal as more favorable to their side to satisfy domestic constituencies.
Despite the disagreements, markets are pricing in a higher probability that a deal will eventually be reached. Analysts assume that, despite the continued conflict, an agreement will eventually end the war and restore energy flows from the Middle East, according to CNBC reporting. The geopolitical risk premium that has inflated oil prices since February could unwind significantly if a deal is finalized, potentially sending prices lower.
Sources
- CNBC — U.S. crude oil price declines, Trump official’s 80% confidence level, deal terms, Iran Foreign Minister statement, and analyst expectations
- World Bank — Global oil supply disruption figures from Strait of Hormuz closure
- Wikipedia — 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis as largest oil market disruption in history
- Trading Economics — Crude oil price decline confirmation and Strait of Hormuz reopening expectations
