Oil prices fell below $85 per barrel on Friday as the U.S. and Iran moved closer to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing tensions that had sent crude soaring earlier this year.
U.S. crude oil futures fell 3.2% to close at $84.88 per barrel, while Brent futures, the international benchmark, lost 3.4% to settle at $87.33, according to CNBC. Brent crude traded briefly below $85 a barrel on Friday morning in fresh hope that a deal could mean a reopening of the strait over the weekend, according to The Guardian.
A senior Trump administration official said they see an 80% chance that the U.S. and Iran will sign an agreement in the coming days. The official acknowledged uncertainty, noting “It’s not 100%” and that “their system is very complicated,” but said most people with authority within Iran’s system want to sign the deal.
The proposed agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the U.S. naval blockade, dismantle Iran’s nuclear program and remove its enriched uranium, according to the Trump administration official. Iran would receive financial incentives if they comply with the agreement.
The Strait of Hormuz has been a critical flashpoint in the conflict. When Iran closed the waterway in March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Tehran, the blockade disrupted approximately 11.1 million barrels per day of global oil supply, pushing crude prices to a peak of $113 per barrel, according to Bloomberg. Members of the International Energy Agency coordinated a release of 400 million barrels of emergency crude to stabilize markets.
Oil prices have fallen roughly 20% from 2026 highs as optimism grew over a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire, according to CNBC reporting from May. The decline reflects market expectations that reopening the strait would ease the supply crunch that has gripped energy markets for months. Before the conflict began, Brent crude had traded at about $70 per barrel, according to The Guardian.
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has mediated U.S.-Iran talks, said an “incessant misinformation campaign” was being “waged by those who want to sabotage a peace deal.” He confirmed that “a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi echoed the sentiment, saying a memorandum of understanding “has never been closer.”
The oil market’s reaction underscores how deeply geopolitical supply disruptions affect global energy prices. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Brent crude surged over 8% in a single day, surpassing $100 per barrel for the first time in years, according to research from the London School of Economics. Geopolitical shocks typically trigger sharper price increases than conventional supply disruptions because traders price in sustained uncertainty about future supply.
Sources
- CNBC — U.S. crude oil futures fell 3.2% to $84.88 per barrel and Brent lost 3.4% to $87.33; Trump official’s 80% confidence assessment; deal terms including Hormuz reopening and nuclear program dismantling; May reporting on 20% price decline from 2026 highs
- The Guardian — Brent crude traded briefly below $85 a barrel on Friday morning; pre-conflict Brent price at $70 per barrel; oil market context
- Bloomberg — Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted 11.1 million barrels per day of global supply; oil prices peaked at $113 per barrel
- London School of Economics — Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion caused Brent to surge over 8% in a single day, surpassing $100 per barrel
