Democrats hold a 5-point advantage in the fight for control of Congress, according to a new NBC News poll released today, as President Trump’s approval rating sinks to 42 percent—the lowest mark of his second term in surveys from the network. The poll, conducted from May 29 to June 7, found 49 percent of registered voters prefer to see Democrats control Congress, compared to 44 percent who prefer Republican control and 7 percent who are unsure.
Trump’s poor approval rating continues to weigh down his party ahead of the midterms. The president’s standing has deteriorated sharply among groups that shifted toward him in the 2024 election: 77 percent of voters aged 18 to 29 disapprove of Trump, compared to 21 percent who approve, while 64 percent of Latino voters disapprove and 34 percent approve.
Independents lean toward Democrats by a 12-point margin (46%-34%), as do majorities of Black and Latino voters, voters under 50 years old, and those with a college degree. Republicans maintain an edge among men, white voters, and those without a college education. Among Republicans themselves, support has eroded: 82 percent now approve of Trump’s job performance, down from 88 percent in March.
The 5-point Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot is essentially unchanged from the NBC News poll conducted in March, when Democrats held a 6-point advantage. The current margin sits in the middle of historical ranges: both parties were tied on the generic ballot in the May 2022 NBC News poll, while Democrats had a 10-point lead in the June 2018 NBC News poll during the “blue wave” midterm cycle.
Democrats need to net just 3 House seats to capture the majority in the chamber, a significantly lower bar than in previous cycles. However, the Senate remains a steeper climb: Democrats would need to net 4 seats to gain control, and would have to win multiple states Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies noted that while “these are rocky numbers for Republicans, they are not catastrophic,” since Democrats’ advantages in recent “blue wave” years like 2018 were larger.
The poll also reflects broader voter pessimism. A majority of registered voters—56 percent—say America’s best years are behind it, compared to 40 percent who believe the country’s best days are still ahead. Nearly 80 percent say the American Dream is harder to attain now than a generation ago. Half of voters say they have very little or no confidence in the federal government, while 58 percent express similar distrust in Congress.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates noted signs of cracks in the GOP base, with 95 percent of 2024 Harris voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 90 percent of Trump voters prefer Republican control. Horwitt argued that Democrats “are still in a really good position, despite redistricting, to win seats.”
Sources
- NBC News — June 14, 2026 poll showing Democrats with 5-point congressional lead and Trump approval at 42 percent
- NBC News — March 2026 poll for historical comparison of Democratic congressional advantage
