Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest maintains its bullish $2,600 price target for Tesla by 2029, reaffirming confidence in the electric vehicle maker’s transformation into a robotaxi-focused business even as the firm continues to add shares at current valuations.
ARK Invest, led by Wood, published its detailed Tesla valuation model in June 2024, projecting an expected value of $2,600 per share by 2029 based on a Monte Carlo simulation of 45 independent variables. The analysis includes a bear case of approximately $2,000 per share and a bull case of roughly $3,100 per share, according to ARK’s research.
The firm’s conviction in Tesla rests heavily on the robotaxi business, which ARK estimates will account for nearly 90% of Tesla’s enterprise value and earnings by 2029. According to ARK’s model, the robotaxi business is projected to generate $603 billion in autonomous ride-hail revenue in the bear case and $951 billion in the bull case, dwarfing the electric vehicle business’s contribution.
In early 2026, ARK Invest has been actively purchasing Tesla stock. The firm acquired approximately $27.8 million in Tesla shares in early April 2026, followed by additional purchases of roughly $14 million on April 6 and $11.4 million on April 10, according to trading records. These purchases suggest Wood and her team view current prices as attractive entry points despite Tesla’s stock trading well below ARK’s long-term target.
ARK’s confidence in the robotaxi thesis rests on Tesla’s autonomous driving capabilities. The firm notes that Tesla has accumulated more than 1.3 billion cumulative Full Self-Driving (FSD) miles and is accumulating autonomous driving data at approximately 110 times the rate of competitor Waymo. According to ARK’s research, a Tesla in FSD mode is roughly 5 times safer than a human-driven Tesla and approximately 16 times safer than the average car on the road.
The valuation model assumes Tesla will launch a robotaxi service within the next two years, with ARK estimating the probability of failure to launch within five years as “di minimis.” The firm projects that Tesla will initially own and operate its vehicle network, retaining all revenue per mile for the first one to three years, before transitioning to a model where third-party fleet operators earn approximately $0.20 per mile for their services while Tesla retains the remainder.
ARK’s 2029 projection explicitly excludes meaningful contributions from Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus, stationary energy storage expansion, or Full Self-Driving licensing to other automakers. The firm argues that if robotaxis were removed from the model entirely, Tesla’s price target would fall to approximately $350 per share, underscoring how central autonomous ride-hailing is to the bull case.
Sources
- ARK Invest — published detailed Tesla valuation model dated June 12, 2024, establishing $2,600 per share price target for 2029 with bear and bull cases
- GuruFocus — reported ARK Invest’s $28 million Tesla purchase in early April 2026 and subsequent acquisitions totaling approximately $44 million across multiple days
- Barron’s — confirmed ARK’s robotaxi revenue projections and enterprise value attribution in the 2029 model
- Morningstar — documented Cathie Wood’s continued confidence in Tesla’s $2,600 target as of February 2026
